The Real Price off a Free Scratch

gulfportdoc

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Artie Bodendorfer said:
... And what I am saying forget about daves free scratch he was getting. IF he didnt get that spot and played 18 to 4. And Dave scratches.Howe much is Daves ball woth compaired to Gabs amount off balls? I know its more then one.
David Peat believed that his intentional scratch was worth 2+ balls: http://www.onepocket.org/forum/showpost.php?p=56644&postcount=38

If by "intentional scratch" he means a pre-announced free push, then I think it's worth at most 2-1/4 balls in the handicap. The free push is a very powerful weapon, but on the other hand, that would not protect him against a pocket scratch, or other foul.

So, while Artie's arithmetic indicates that 1 ball of Peat's equals 4-1/2 balls of Gabe's, I think that limiting the spot to "one free push" reduces the value of the spot by at least half-- maybe more.

Doc
 

wincardona

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Artie Bodendorfer said:
If all this scratching stuff is making you dizzy.You will be ok because your the doctor.

John the Greek yous too say the reason people get dizzy because they dont have enough oxegen in his brain.

And John the Greek told Dave too move over in the cab. Because Dave was stealing all his oxegen and he couldnt think.

Why would dave take 13 and a half balls to 4 and a free scratch. When he was getting 18 to 4 and a free scratch?

The rules were made for people playing even. Not handy capet games. And those were the only rules and that is what they played by.


What I said was the value off one ball too the value off the spot. One balll off DAves is worth 4 and a half balls off Daves balls. If THey Both take two scratches the game is 20 to 6 and one scratch by each player would be 19 to 5.

And anyone can see thier is somthing wrong with that. And Gab wouldnt give two balls for the free scratch.

Number one the rule says ball for ball. Number two why would anyone buy a scratch that they might not use in the game at all.

And what I am saying forget about daves free scratch he was getting. IF he didnt get that spot and played 18 to 4. And Dave scratches.Howe much is Daves ball woth compaired to Gabs amount off balls? I know its more then one.
Artie there's definetly a misunderstanding here, in your original post for this thread you stated in the # 5 and # 6 explanations what the spot was and what the free scratch that Dave was getting was worth. I tried to explain several times in this thread that the free scratch was not a free scratch it was a push, and that it was not worth 4 1/2 Gabe balls. There are many people that have commented in this thread that disagreed with your evaluation of the free scratch IN THIS GAME. I think your confusing yourself by saying free scratch, when it's a free push. Go back to the first page of this thread and read what you said in #5 and #6.

Billy I.
 
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Artie Bodendorfer

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wincardona said:
Artie there's definetly a misunderstanding here, in your original post for this thread you stated in the # 5 and # 6 explanations what the spot was and what the free scratch that Dave was getting was worth. I tried to explain several times in this thread that the free scratch was not a free scratch it was a push, and that it was not worth 4 1/2 Gabe balls. There are many people that have commented in this thread that disagreed with your evaluation of the free scratch IN THIS GAME. I think your confusing yourself by saying free scratch, when it's a free push. Go back to the first page of this thread and read what you said in #5 and #6.

Billy I.
This all got started on a nother tread. And it did not get started by saying Dave was getting a free push. And thats not important any way.

Because what was said and interpetet different is not the important thing about this whole thing.

What I brought out and whats important for people too see and learn. Is not weather he had a push a limited scratch or foul or even a half a sctatch or a half a push.

The important thing for people too see that in a proposition game the rules should be different. THey price off a scratch in a game were a player is getting 14 to 2 cannot be the same for the week player as the good player.

And that is what I wanted too bring out. Not that its even going too change. BUt I mad people aware off it.

And it has been used ever since I can remember. Because I was one off the people who used it. And I new when I read they rule it was not fair.

But the rule was in my favor and I never said anything. If I am giving a player 9 to 3 and we both are shooting at the game ball. Howe can his scratch cost him the same as mein? If I am playing him 9 to3.

Are you going too say that its in the rules and its figured in the spot. People make games according howe the player plays. Not according too the rules. People dont realy think about the rules.

And when a discrepancy comes up. They dont want too go by the rules anyway. And they say we were playing by the house rules not BCA rules. But the games are made by how both people play.

AOr the use another person and say her is how you played him. And her is how I played him. And the rules realy dont come up in the disscousion. Because everyone knowes the rules or should no them.

BUt the people who read this and watch someone playing will say.When the good player scratches how come he only spots one ball. And it will be remembered.

And Some week players wiil be a little more clever. And say you are spotting me 9 to 3 and when you scratch it cots you 3 balls. And the good player wont give in and say thats not the rule. But the good player mite settle for giving the weeker player 2 to 1 one on his scratch.

Thinking he wont scratch. Or he might even think the weeker player has a point and might give him the 3 to 1 on scratches. Or add another 5 or 10 dollaers on the price off the game they are playing for. Whatever someone says. It has barganibg power.

Because it does make a lot off sense. But thats the important thing that I wanted too bring out. Not weather Daves spot was way less or different. That realy has nothing too do with what I said.

THe real and whole picture is Howe can a scratch be even when the player is getting 20 to 5 . And one ball in compairison too the other player is 5 to 1 so how can his scratch price equale one for one.

That is the qoiustion. And thier will be a lot off different answers and Qouistions from this. If you are the weak player.

And you have read this Howe do you feel and what to you have too say about a player giving you 15 to 5. Howe do you feel about playing him one ball for one ball for every scratch.

WE need the opinion from the weaker player. What they think not just the good players.

And the people who want too use the rule because its in thier favor. I want too her from the people that the rule is not in thier favor. Thank you.
 

SJDinPHX

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One Pocket Ghost said:
what is a 1 scratch handicap worth? :eek:

You idiot...Artie and Billy have already explained this (in 37,968 words, or thereabouts)...Didn't you learn anything ?..;) ;) ;)

Duck <---hopes they will go through it all again, (for the retards)...I'm starting to get a migraine again...:eek:
 

SJDinPHX

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One Pocket Ghost said:
what is a 1 scratch handicap worth? :p

You idiot...Artie and Billy have already explained this (in 37,968 words, or thereabouts)...Didn't you learn anything ?..;) ;)

Duck <---hopes they will go through it all again, (for the retards)...:eek:

PS..I am starting to get a miraine again !
 

Skin

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Artie Bodendorfer said:
THe real and whole picture is Howe can a scratch be even when the player is getting 20 to 5 . And one ball in compairison too the other player is 5 to 1 so how can his scratch price equale one for one.

That is the qoiustion. And thier will be a lot off different answers and Qouistions from this. If you are the weak player.

And you have read this Howe do you feel and what to you have too say about a player giving you 15 to 5. Howe do you feel about playing him one ball for one ball for every scratch.

WE need the opinion from the weaker player. What they think not just the good players.

And the people who want too use the rule because its in thier favor. I want too her from the people that the rule is not in thier favor. Thank you.

OK, Artie, a complication to your formula is this if we are talking about a scratch where the penalty is one ball plus cb in hand behind the headstring:

If the game is 8-4, you say the stronger player should pay 2 balls on his scratch and the weaker player should pay one ball on his scratch. Are you saying they should both pay only one cb in hand behind the headstring on their scratch, too? Because, the penalty for the scratch has two parts - the spotted ball AND the bih, it seems to me like the stronger player is getting the better of it by only getting charged 1/2 of the proportional penalty on the ball in hand.

Therefore, at 8-4, should the stronger player pay the weaker player two balls on the spot and two cb-in-hand behind the headstring? If he pays two cb-in-hand, how is the weaker player going to collect the other cb-in-hand after his first shot following the foul?

One other thing, I did indeed talk to a statistics professor about this today. He understands pool and said he could not wrap his head around a ball value for the free foul but thought it might be likely that the value will fall into the margin of error when making the game because you can't know for sure that 16-4 (or any x-y) is an even game to begin with until it is played. But, he eventually agreed with me that no ball value can be assigned to the free foul unless a large number of games have been played with and without it and an analysis done to see if there is a statistical difference in balls made and how much it is. This is the only way to do it because it is the only way to control for all of uncontrollable variables. The way you are figuring it is similar to how it should be done in a free throw contest where everything stays the same on each shot and neither player can interfere with the other.

Skin < just saw Dick and Dennis; they were running, screaming, down the street :D
 
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One Pocket Ghost

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Skin said:
OK, Artie, a complication to your formula is this if we are talking about a scratch where the penalty is one ball plus cb in hand behind the headstring:

If the game is 8-4, you say the stronger player should pay 2 balls on his scratch and the weaker player should pay one ball on his scratch. Are you saying they should both pay only one cb in hand behind the headstring on their scratch, too? Because, the penalty for the scratch has two parts - the spotted ball AND the bih, it seems to me like the stronger player is getting the better of it by only getting charged 1/2 of the proportional penalty on the ball in hand.

Therefore, at 8-4, should the stronger player pay the weaker player two balls on the spot and two cb-in-hand behind the headstring? If he pays two cb-in-hand, how is the weaker player going to collect the other cb-in-hand after his first shot following the foul?

One other thing, I did indeed talk to a statistics professor about this today. He understands pool and said he could not wrap his head around a ball value for the free foul but thought it might be likely that the value will fall into the margin of error when making the game because you can't know for sure that 16-4 (or any x-y) is an even game to begin with until it is played. But, he eventually agreed with me that no ball value can be assigned to the free foul unless a large number of games have been played with and without it and an analysis done to see if there is a statistical difference in balls made and how much it is. This is the only way to do it because it is the only way to control for all of uncontrollable variables. The way you are figuring it is similar to how it should be done in a free throw contest where everything stays the same on each shot and neither player can interfere with the other.

Skin < just saw Dick and Dennis; they were running, screaming, down the street :D


Skin, Skin, Skin.....I made a point Saturday of crediting you for a 'first-call post', but you don't do the same for me..:rolleyes:...I was first to say what your stats-professor and whoever else said, early in this thread >>>

One Pocket Ghost said:
My point being, that there is not enough data available re. this scratch-spot scenario, to make it possible to use probability theory to come up with a valid analysis of what the spot is worth - a guess, is all that's possible ....:cool:

- Ghost
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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One Pocket Ghost said:
Skin, Skin, Skin.....I made a point Saturday of crediting you for a 'first-call post', but you don't do the same for me..:rolleyes:...I was first to say what your stats-professor and whoever else said, early in this thread >>>
Have your profesor give mr a call and I will explain it to him.

And see what answer he comes up with. And if you have a probability expert then he can without a dought give the correct amswer. He can spot us 50 to one on the correct answer.

Even though a proffersor mite not have the answer. A great mathamatician may be able to give the correct answer.

And anyone that knowes about gambling Knowes that a even game should have different rules then a big handycapr game. Forget about the free scratch because its not about a free scratch.

Its about a free push. And I was compairing it to a foul or scratch. And you onlty get cue ball in hand on a pocket scratch or jump off the table. Most fouls you dont get cue ball in hand.

I am talking about what both player pays for a foul or scratch. Is one ball. then why is one off Daves balls worth 4 and a half balls?


And if you want to start talking silly . Thier are lots off things you can say. Like why doesnt he get 3 breacks or why doesnt he get 3 misses or why doesnt he get cueball in hand every shot. Or why doesnt he get 4 and a half scratches to every foul from the better player.

And one more if Gab and dave increase the game in value. How are they going too play 22and a half too 5? A foul is a penalty and the rules in all the sports are made up for even up play. Not handycap games.

And some off the rules that have a big effect in value are not fair. If a good player can but the cue ball in a position were the weeker player has to take a scratch back and he is playing him even on that ball ids that fair


And If the rule was changed no no no intentinal scratches. And a pocket scratch does not cost either player a ball. Would be a little bit more fairer. No penalty for a scratch. That would be fairer too the weaker player.

Give the problem too the colledge kids at UCLA to figure out the problem. And come up with a answer. And I am pretty sure not 100% that these rules were made for even up games. And even in college they have different rules then pros. Rules are made too make the games fair.

And to change something with a different example that realy doest applie or adds up is getting off ove what the example ie about.

I herd Dave wants too back you in my one pocket challange. Poney down at Bensingers use too tell people who wanted him to back them. He said I will back you I will back you against the wall.

I will just ask you one qouistion if you dont want too answer it thats ok yoo.


If Dave is getting 18 to 4 what is one off Daves balls worth? And If the game they are going too play is 4 and a half to one how could they ever play that way.Well her is the answer. People would say how could they play thier is a half a ball involved??

THat is correct But if they play and Dave makes one ball he wins. And If Gabe makes 5 balls he would win is that correct. Not realy thier is a factor invoved. I will leave it open see if someone sees it.

But the best person too solve the value is a probability expert. He will without a dought come up with the correct answer. Do you no a probablity expert?
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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One Pocket Ghost said:
:eek: what is a 1 scratch handicap worth? :eek:
Three cueballs in hand and 3b black cue balls to block youre cue ball from shooting. And the better player can not make a ball with cue ball in hand.

Well howe am I supose to win???????? Now you are getting it . Your not suppose too win. And if you win the next game you pay me double if you win.

And the finale worth you cant quite tell your broke. And if you win I am allowed to give you ass. I guy told that too a guy in Bensingers. And he splite his head wide open. The guy told the other guy that wone thats the way we do it around her.

But the guy didnt like his answer. He told him your not giving me ass. And the other guy was lucky he didnt get killed.He didnt tell no one else that he is giving them ass.
 

CaliRed

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I'm asking this in all seriousness, what does giving someone ass mean? I haven't came across that line before, so I'm asking because I'm the curious type.
 

newfosgatesucks

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A free ass scratch? What's that worth?

CaliRed said:
I'm asking this in all seriousness, what does giving someone ass mean? I haven't came across that line before, so I'm asking because I'm the curious type.
 

androd

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CaliRed said:
I'm asking this in all seriousness, what does giving someone ass mean? I haven't came across that line before, so I'm asking because I'm the curious type.

that's the vernacular for when they don't pay.:p
Rod
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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One Pocket Ghost said:
Skin, Skin, Skin.....I made a point Saturday of crediting you for a 'first-call post', but you don't do the same for me..:rolleyes:...I was first to say what your stats-professor and whoever else said, early in this thread >>>
The number off games has nothing to do with the spread. Any one that knowes how too figure out probabilities can figure out the correct percentageof any proposition. All you need to do is give him the prices in any game. All Rules dont need too be changed but some do.

Just like in football the get one chalange in the half. Well the correct rule would be to have all the close plays chalanged. Or none.

Having one is like jerking off the people. And they dont need the coaches too chalange a play.

Its the officials job too get the play called correct. And if the have two oor three officials reviewing the play up stairs on film.

The can make a quick call wright away. And if a play is real close than they need to take a little extra time.

But some plays are real easy too see. Her is a play the refferess need too let them play the play out. THe player intercepted the ball and the reff said he didnt and the play was stoped.

And the player did entercepte the ball and would have ran it back for a touch down. But the whistle stoped the play. They got the football but they did not get the touchdown.

Just like when the offense player uses his helmete for a helmet too helmet contact. They only call it on the defense.

Just like if the quater back does it or grabs the players face mask or a hand too the face they dont call it. And thier time keepers have all kinds off mistakes.

Like pass interference the offensive player runs wright into the defensive player and nothing is called. like the offensive player only has a wright too the ball.

But all the rules and laws are made by humans. And the laws are made too use against us. Why doesnt the goverment have too pay when they make a mistake? Is that because they are the goverment?

John I would like too ask you? Whoever told you that I played good good in Mobel Alabama how come Rickie Bird beat me both times? I dont have too play good too loose do I.

And Billy's blood pressure didnt go uo because I played so good did it? I was playing like I was playing him one and stop.

And Ricky Bird played bad too. But I played worse. One game took us 3 and a half houers.


THATS LIKE AVARAGING ONE BALL A HOUER. Thats worse then bad. Dave avarages better then that. That might have been the worst played game in life.
.

But I was playing good. What does my avarage go too when I am playing bad. A half a ball a houer?
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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One Pocket Ghost said:
Skin, Skin, Skin.....I made a point Saturday of crediting you for a 'first-call post', but you don't do the same for me..:rolleyes:...I was first to say what your stats-professor and whoever else said, early in this thread >>>
IF you get me a probability expert. I garentee he will come up with a answer?
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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Artie Bodendorfer said:
IF you get me a probability expert. I garentee he will come up with a answer?
If some on knowes a probability expert he will definatly figure out the problem. The can figure out any card pool or sports problem.

All you have to do is tell them what you want them too figure out.And the will put all the proba bilities together and come up with the answer.

I was going to learn how too do that but I stoped. And I had a good book that showed he how to do it. It was given to me by a great card expert. And the book was not on the maket.

And he did not want too smarten up the world. But he liket me and we got along great. And he did it as a favor too me.

He gave me the book. And I dont no what I did with it. But it had everything in it too figure out any problem. And the correct percentages.

But a probabilitiey person will be able to give the correct amswer. And they will not sat what the proffesor said thier is not enough Data or Information.
 

wincardona

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Thank you.

Thank you.

Skin said:
OK, Artie, a complication to your formula is this if we are talking about a scratch where the penalty is one ball plus cb in hand behind the headstring:

If the game is 8-4, you say the stronger player should pay 2 balls on his scratch and the weaker player should pay one ball on his scratch. Are you saying they should both pay only one cb in hand behind the headstring on their scratch, too? Because, the penalty for the scratch has two parts - the spotted ball AND the bih, it seems to me like the stronger player is getting the better of it by only getting charged 1/2 of the proportional penalty on the ball in hand.

Therefore, at 8-4, should the stronger player pay the weaker player two balls on the spot and two cb-in-hand behind the headstring? If he pays two cb-in-hand, how is the weaker player going to collect the other cb-in-hand after his first shot following the foul?

One other thing, I did indeed talk to a statistics professor about this today. He understands pool and said he could not wrap his head around a ball value for the free foul but thought it might be likely that the value will fall into the margin of error when making the game because you can't know for sure that 16-4 (or any x-y) is an even game to begin with until it is played. But, he eventually agreed with me that no ball value can be assigned to the free foul unless a large number of games have been played with and without it and an analysis done to see if there is a statistical difference in balls made and how much it is. This is the only way to do it because it is the only way to control for all of uncontrollable variables. The way you are figuring it is similar to how it should be done in a free throw contest where everything stays the same on each shot and neither player can interfere with the other.

Skin < just saw Dick and Dennis; they were running, screaming, down the street :D
He's exactly right, if you look at my post #72 I explain exactly the conclusion your professer came to. You cannot put a ball value on a proposition when there are 1000's of uncontrollable variables. The only way to do it is to play both ends out countless number of times, to get a true read on the difference of balls made with the two games. And only then are you going to get an approximate answer.

Billy I.
 
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wincardona

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impossible

impossible

Artie Bodendorfer said:
IF you get me a probability expert. I garentee he will come up with a answer?
Artie, there isn't anyone that can come up with the answer, it's impossible. I'll lay 100 to 1 that noone can come up with the answer. Do you realize that the ball value for the free push differs with every player? We're talking intangibles, anytime you deal with so many intangibles you can only guess what the probability is.

Look at it this way. Do you think the ball value is the same if Reyes gets a free push, and if Dippie gets a free push? Of course not. Then how are you going to get a professer to come up with the answer? Your not. I'll lay 100 to 1.

When you make a program to beat baseball, or football, the way it's done is to put all the variables in the program and run it on a computer 100,000's of times to get only an approximate outcome, never an exact outcome. The only way you can get an exact outcome on a proposition is if your dealing with exact probabilities. Like any dice proposition can be figured out exactly because we're dealing with math, not intangibles. You cannot apply math to problems that have 1000's of intangibles, you must play them out to get an approximate idea of what the value MAY BE.

Billy I.
 

gulfportdoc

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wincardona said:
Artie, there isn't anyone that can come up with the answer, it's impossible. I'll lay 100 to 1 that noone can come up with the answer. Do you realize that the ball value for the free push differs with every player? We're talking intangibles, anytime you deal with so many intangibles you can only guess what the probability is.

Look at it this way. Do you think the ball value is the same if Reyes gets a free push, and if Dippie gets a free push? Of course not. Then how are you going to get a professer to come up with the answer? Your not. I'll lay 100 to 1.

When you make a program to beat baseball, or football, the way it's done is to put all the variables in the program and run it on a computer 100,000's of times to get only an approximate outcome, never an exact outcome. The only way you can get an exact outcome on a proposition is if your dealing with exact probabilities. Like any dice proposition can be figured out exactly because we're dealing with math, not intangibles. You cannot apply math to problems that have 1000's of intangibles, you must play them out to get an approximate idea of what the value MAY BE.
Artie, here is a golden chance to get a hundred out of Cardone, while only putting up a buck!!:cool: This opportunity almost never comes up, so we should investigate this further.;) After all, $100 is almost enough to buy a cup of coffee and a plain doughnut at Harrah's...

This from Wikipedia: "Probability is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that an event will occur or has occurred. Statistics is the science of the collection, organization, and interpretation of data." The two disciplines can obviously go hand in hand.

What Billy is referring to are statistics. But a statistician could not give us the answer here. I believe a probability expert would have enough data, based upon this specific question, to establish a formula which would give us an idea of what a scratch, or a free scratch, or a foul would be worth in this set of circumstances.

Do you know anyone from the university that could put you in contact with a probability professor? We have a university here, but all they teach is Cajun cooking, metal shop, and courses on William Faulkner.

I have a book Probability for Dummies by Deborah Rumsey, PhD; but after diligently trying to follow the formulae set ups, my mind shut down. I need a probability book for sub-dummies.

Doc
 
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