The Real Price off a Free Scratch

[ChrisBanks]

I haven't read through this entire thread yet, but my calculation of the price of a free scratch when playing 8 - 8 is the following:

1 multiplied by the estimated probability that the player will scratch in the game.............

If the player scratches approximately once every 5 games, then we multiply 1 by .20, and the value of the free scratch is .20.

This makes logical sense. Clearly if you are playing Scott Frost, he is unlikely to scratch into the pocket in a given game. Therefore the value of the free scratch is less than one.

To further support this argument, ask Scott if he would prefer to receive a one ball spot, or a free scratch. If he is indifferent between the two choices, then this supports that the free scratch is worth 1 ball.

My hypothesis is that Scott will prefer to receive the one ball spot every time. This supports the claim that the free scratch is worth less than one ball.

I am very confident that this is the proper way to assign a ball value to a free scratch. Assigning it a value of one in an 8-8 game does not take into consideration the probability of a scratch occuring.

A method used in philosophy is to subject theories to their limitation. Suppose we gave Scott Frost 50 free scratches. Is the spot now 50-8? Clearly this does not make intuitive sense.

Instead, in this scenario we take the estimated probability of Scott scratching 1 time in a game, 2 times in a game, 3 times in a game.... up to 50.

So for example, the probability of Scott scratching in a game:

1 time: 10%
2 times: 5%
3 times 1%
4 times: 0%
5 times: 0%...........
6 times: 0%

Sum all of the totals we estimate that the percentage of Scott scratching any number of times in a game is 16%.

Therefore allowing him 50 free scratches is worth .16 balls.

I don't believe there is a better method of quantifying the value of a free scratch.

 

[beatle]

its not how many times you scratch in a game. its how you can effectively use the free scratch.

playing a champ it isnt worth as much as playing a chump. the champ doesnt give you many innings. but you use it not when you scratch but intentionally scratch to get out of a trap and maybe put him in a 50/50 shot position which now gives you a good chance.

against a chump or someone that plays around your speed you can shoot him up table anytime you are hooked and he is a dog to make a shot on you. so you get a free move without selling out. you get many innings at the table and can use it many times in games that arent wide open.

 

[ChrisBanks]

its not how many times you scratch in a game. its how you can effectively use the free scratch.

playing a champ it isnt worth as much as playing a chump. the champ doesnt give you many innings. but you use it not when you scratch but intentionally scratch to get out of a trap and maybe put him in a 50/50 shot position which now gives you a good chance.

against a chump or someone that plays around your speed you can shoot him up table anytime you are hooked and he is a dog to make a shot on you. so you get a free move without selling out. you get many innings at the table and can use it many times in games that arent wide open.

Now the story is different. My calculations were inclusive of only scratches into the pocket. In which the expected number of scratches per game is the main consideration.

If the free scratch includes table fouls, the formula needs to change, but I still am not confident that the value of the free foul equals 1 ball.

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

Now the story is different. My calculations were inclusive of only scratches into the pocket. In which the expected number of scratches per game is the main consideration.

If the free scratch includes table fouls, the formula needs to change, but I still am not confident that the value of the free foul equals 1 ball.

I can't remember for certain but I think the thread topic turned out to be a "free, called-in-advance, push". I know that at least two highly intelligent posters here agreed that the spot wasn't worth spit. Or maybe it was worth spit, I can never remember.

Dennis

 

[lll]

I can't remember for certain but I think the thread topic turned out to be a "free, called-in-advance, push". I know that at least two highly intelligent posters here agreed that the spot wasn't worth spit. Or maybe it was worth spit, I can never remember.

Dennis

i remember......
it had to do with whether you spit into(worth more) or against(worth less or was that worthless?)) the wind..:heh

 

[beatle]

ive played tons of the game and watched it the same. against runout players it is not much of a spot. but when two players that make mistakes that trade shots all game the spot is huge.

 

[WillieNilly]

the price of a free scratch is .....well ....its free right?


IMHO, against a GOOD player , its worth next to nothing... considering that nothing truly offensive can come out of it.
It just gets you out of trouble once ina while.... but also usually only temporarilly.

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

ive played tons of the game and watched it the same. against runout players it is not much of a spot. but when two players that make mistakes that trade shots all game the spot is huge.

beatle,

It's not "fouls don't count", it's one "called in advance free push" per game.

Dennis

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

I can't remember for certain but I think the thread topic turned out to be a "free, called-in-advance, push". I know that at least two highly intelligent posters here agreed that the spot wasn't worth spit. Or maybe it was worth spit, I can never remember.

Dennis

i remember......
it had to do with whether you spit into(worth more) or against(worth less or was that worthless?)) the wind..:heh

the price of a free scratch is .....well ....its free right?


IMHO, against a GOOD player , its worth next to nothing... considering that nothing truly offensive can come out of it.
It just gets you out of trouble once ina while.... but also usually only temporarilly.

...and the list grows to 4 highly intelligent players...

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

Did we ever reach a consensus on this topic? I'm confused.

RBL

 

[androd]

This thread has some of the stupidest statements by supposedly sharp people. It's amazing how ignorant they really are. It's grand they've been stealing for years, because they know little about matching up. :frus
Rod.

 

[NH Steve]

I value the thread's value for opening people's eyes to make them think for themselves as to the real value of a scratch, and that's invaluable

 

[wgcp]

Thead value?

Thead value?

I think the main point made is this... If Ghost wants to spot me 12 8, then he should have to spot more balls on his scratch than I do on mine... I like this idea... he takes an intentional, has to spot 1, I take an intentional spot 1, he replies with another scratch and since the spot goes over a half a ball, he spots 2.

So if he has to spot 2 every other intentional, the odds of the game stay even... I like this a lot... even though he out moves me, shoots straighter, the odds stay even...

What do you say to that one ghostie... 100 a game? you spot 2 every other foul...

B

PS welcome back Dennis...

 

[androd]

I think the main point made is this... If Ghost wants to spot me 12 8, then he should have to spot more balls on his scratch than I do on mine... I like this idea... he takes an intentional, has to spot 1, I take an intentional spot 1, he replies with another scratch and since the spot goes over a half a ball, he spots 2.

So if he has to spot 2 every other intentional, the odds of the game stay even... I like this a lot... even though he out moves me, shoots straighter, the odds stay even...

What do you say to that one ghostie... 100 a game? you spot 2 every other foul...

B

PS welcome back Dennis...

If he takes an intentional foul playing you, he's mistreating his customer.
I'd never do that. I never do.
Rod.

 

[wgcp]

rod

rod

We really need to play one day... the laughs would be worth the trouble...

B

 

[gulfportdoc]

I think the main point made is this... If Ghost wants to spot me 12 8, then he should have to spot more balls on his scratch than I do on mine... I like this idea... he takes an intentional, has to spot 1, I take an intentional spot 1, he replies with another scratch and since the spot goes over a half a ball, he spots 2.

So if he has to spot 2 every other intentional, the odds of the game stay even... I like this a lot... even though he out moves me, shoots straighter, the odds stay even...

What do you say to that one ghostie... 100 a game? you spot 2 every other foul...

B

Good point Bille. But the Specter never fouls....

~Doc

 

[LSJohn]

What do you mean. A free scratch is like a "get out of jail free card". That can mean a heck of a lot if used when you're in a jam.

It's still worth only one ball because when you take it, it saves you one compared to taking the same strategic foul if it wasn't free. IOW, you would shoot the same shot to try to get out of the jam even if it cost you a ball.

 

[straightback]

To me, this issue boils down to this - the foul is only worth one ball, but the better player can get much more value for his scratch, such as escaping a stone cold trap and knowing when and how to use it. Conversely, the ever-powerful intentional is neutered in the hands of a less skilled one pocket practitioner.

Also, there is the issue of "lengthening a game out," where both players are forced to take multiple fouls in a row. Once lengthened, the game favors the better player, particularly where the better player is possessed of a nice offensive game.

 

[androd]

It's still worth only one ball

To me, this issue boils down to this - the foul is only worth one ball

It's worth nowhere near a ball. much less.
Rod.
P.S. As SJD said previously in this thread "it's infinitesimal"

 

[LSJohn]

He's exactly right, if you look at my post #72 I explain exactly the conclusion your professer came to. You cannot put a ball value on a proposition when there are 1000's of uncontrollable variables. The only way to do it is to play both ends out countless number of times, to get a true read on the difference of balls made with the two games. And only then are you going to get an approximate answer.

Billy I.

Of course you're right in this... there's no way to arrive at a definitive answer mathematically. The other side of the coin is that in giving or getting a free scratch or free push we would estimate the value of it despite the thousands of variables... just like you do when you offer or demand 7to5 on a proposition that also has thousands of variables.

I disagree with Artie's math, and I disagree with his "should" but I think his analysis and the following discussion has better prepared some of us to offer or ask for free scratches or pushes.