C. Deuel vs. S.V.B. 2012 Tunica #2

[Cowboy Dennis]

This is a few shots after the other layout. Cory banked the 1 cross-corner and now the score is -1 to -1. It's S.V.B.'s shot from here. WWYD?

 

[vapros]

I would bank the 1 ball toward my corner, with the primary intention to stick him up tight behind the 2-5. Can't imagine doing anything else, but no doubt some posters will. Will he surprise me?

 

[lll]

I would bank the 1 ball toward my corner, with the primary intention to stick him up tight behind the 2-5. Can't imagine doing anything else, but no doubt some posters will. Will he surprise me?

our elders are sages for advice
the key is freezing him on the 2-5
i like that shot and even i could do it

 

[gulfportdoc]

If it was the Ghost shooting, he'd probably kick in the 10 ball, since he's so good at those kicks. That shot is probably only good if it makes. Otherwise I'd shoot Bill's shot, banking the 1, and trying to roll whitey behind the 2-5. I'd be wanting to get something by my hole...

Doc

 

[jtompilot]

Oops wrong hole.

I like banking the 1.

 

[tylerdurden]

This simply may not lay, but if that stripe he lays close to goes thin enough off that 8, just shoot into that and replace the ob stroke. Obviously have to get something close to your hole in these spots and lock him up. The one ball bank looks like it lays decent to me, maybe not quite enough steam to get the 1 up there, but it could boost the 7 and youd get something done.

 

[vapros]

Yep, and if I knock down the 1 ball bank, I will send both the 2 and the 5 toward my pocket. This could be sweet.

 

[petie]

I would bank the 1 ball toward my corner, with the primary intention to stick him up tight behind the 2-5. Can't imagine doing anything else, but no doubt some posters will. Will he surprise me?

I like this shot. I also like going off the 14 with right hand english and going 3 or 4 cushions to (top rail, RH side rail, LH side rail, maybe bottom rail.) obviously, the deeper you can get whitie--the harder it will be for your oppo to make a productive return shot. You don't place a ball near your hole like with Vap's shot but you give your oppo fits none-the-less. He might give up a better position from here.,

 

[NH Steve]

Banking the 1-ball is a nice aggressive shot. If I play that, I'm thinking cue ball position as the priority, so I doubt the 1-ball would be going in my pocket -- and it is also fairly likely to run into the 7-ball. The down side is if you don't get the 1-ball close enough to your hole to create a threat, the little nudge safety exchange that is likely to ensue off the 5-ball is likely to favor the other guy.

It looks like this passive safety is available, so I am sure I would have a look at it and probably play it instead. Of course I would prefer to stick a little behind the edge of the 15-ball.

 

[bstroud]

This is a very tough spot. You are going to lose the game if you don't come up with something pretty strong. (assuming your opponent doesn't miss)

Sending the cue ball up table will only add to the problems.

You have no balls near your pocket and not much chance of getting one close.

So what is the best line of action?

I think I would take a chance and play off the 3 ball? shooting it into the 14 ball and drawing the cue ball between the stripe and the 6 ball and try to freeze it on the side rail.

From there he has no bank toward his pocket.

The 10 ball is the real problem here.

Once it is gone you can leave the cue ball on the end rail.

Move the 10 ball as soon as possible.

Bill S.

 

[Jimmy B]

I'd do something radical like but easy to execute at the same time. I'd do a variation of the Vapros gambit. Take care of whitey and make sure not to leave a soft bank on the eleven back over into the ten for him. Like Mr. Stroud says, you gotta get you some soldiers in action...

 

[THood]

Banking the 1-ball is a nice aggressive shot. If I play that, I'm thinking cue ball position as the priority, so I doubt the 1-ball would be going in my pocket -- and it is also fairly likely to run into the 7-ball. The down side is if you don't get the 1-ball close enough to your hole to create a threat, the little nudge safety exchange that is likely to ensue off the 5-ball is likely to favor the other guy.

It looks like this passive safety is available, so I am sure I would have a look at it and probably play it instead. Of course I would prefer to stick a little behind the edge of the 15-ball.

If I look at all the pro's and all the con's for the balls I can hit, this is what I get:

Kick the 10:
Pro's:

• Deuel is forced to move, I don't see offense from there. (I'm not sure I even want to call this a 'pro')

Con's:

• 
  Low precentage to hit it just right, knocking it up and away.

• Making it for Deuel is the best outcome

• Nothing heads toward my hole

Stunt the 12, stick to the 13:
Pro's:

• Moves the 4 toward my hole from the looks (not certain)

Con's:

• 
  Unless it's perfectly glued to the 13, I sell the 10 straight in.

• If I hit it too hard I could sell the 12 straight in.

• Deuel still kicks the 10, and now he's got more balls to shoot at when he makes it.

Stunt the 13 off the 8:
Pro's:

• It could move the 13 to my hole.

Con's:

• It could move the 13 to his hole.

• If I drift up any, with the 8 gone, the 6 can be cut.

• I still sell the kick

• if I lay the 13 too close to my SR, I sell the cross.

Carom off the 3:
Pro's:

• Nothing straight in for Deuel, at least.

Con's:

• Nothing toward my hole.

• the 11 banks.

• If I get bad, the 10 kicks still.

3-Cushion leave off the 14:
Pro's:

• Nothing straight in for Deuel, at least. (maybe)

Con's:

• If I'm short, the 11 banks.

• If I'm long I can sell the 10-kick

• If I over stroke it I can sell the 10-kick or the 10 straight-in

Bank the 1:
Pro's:

• Moves the 1 toward my hole.

• Can be played safe behind the 2-5

Con's:

• If I come up short on the safe, I leave Deuel straght-in.

• Mis-hit could yield neither the 1 nor the 7 near my pocket. (net punt)

Bank the 7:
Pro's:

• Moves the 7 toward my hole.

Con's: (Where to begin?)

• Scratch if mis-hit

• Whitey is all over the place (Might get safe with hard left behind the 2-5 again, but there's traffic)

• I want everyone I play to shoot this shot against me

I think that's all the balls that can be seen from there. You might be able to see the edge of the 2, but there is no reason to want to. I also didn't analyze other sensless kicks (or the bank on the 14) or intentional fouls since the result is the same as other analyzed shots (10-kick, straight-ins for Deuel, or just another punt).

From this, I think I'd have to shoot the 1. That's the only shot with an up-side.

 

[THood]

This is a very tough spot. You are going to lose the game if you don't come up with something pretty strong. (assuming your opponent doesn't miss)

Sending the cue ball up table will only add to the problems.

You have no balls near your pocket and not much chance of getting one close.

So what is the best line of action?

I think I would take a chance and play off the 3 ball? shooting it into the 14 ball and drawing the cue ball between the stripe and the 6 ball and try to freeze it on the side rail.

From there he has no bank toward his pocket.

The 10 ball is the real problem here.
Once it is gone you can leave the cue ball on the end rail.

Move the 10 ball as soon as possible.

Bill S.

Yup. Perfect assessment as usual

 

[wincardona]

Banking the 1ball is an appealing option. However, positioning the 1ball to where it will serve as a deterrent may be a problem, considering the awkwardness of the angle offered. If the 1ball was positioned several inches to the left then this option becomes clearly the best. However, it's still a reasonable option in this situation because of the ability it offers to control the cue ball in a safe area. In certain situations when there really isn't a productive option available..choosing an option to buy a little time just may be your best choice...With this mindset you have a chance to get away from problematic positions by allowing your opponent to make a mistake. I'm not talking about a egregious mistake, even a small mistake like allowing you to play another more effective move to negate the position a little more. This is what's commonly referred to as...grinding out of a problem...

I also like Steve's choice in post#9. This option will also allow you to buy a little time and wait for your opponent to make a mistake. However, with his option you move the 3ball, and that's a ball that could favor you by pocketing it at a later time.

The strength in buying time is a crucial ingredient in the recipe for success, and shouldn't be undervalued. It's a very strong move. That is....unless you like "circus shots"

Dr. Bill

 

[NH Steve]

If I look at all the pro's and all the con's for the balls I can hit, this is what I get:

Kick the 10:
Pro's:

• Deuel is forced to move, I don't see offense from there. (I'm not sure I even want to call this a 'pro')

Con's:

• 
  Low precentage to hit it just right, knocking it up and away.

• Making it for Deuel is the best outcome

• Nothing heads toward my hole

Stunt the 12, stick to the 13:
Pro's:

• Moves the 4 toward my hole from the looks (not certain)

Con's:

• 
  Unless it's perfectly glued to the 13, I sell the 10 straight in.

• If I hit it too hard I could sell the 12 straight in.

• Deuel still kicks the 10, and now he's got more balls to shoot at when he makes it.

Stunt the 13 off the 8:
Pro's:

• It could move the 13 to my hole.

Con's:

• It could move the 13 to his hole.

• If I drift up any, with the 8 gone, the 6 can be cut.

• I still sell the kick

• if I lay the 13 too close to my SR, I sell the cross.

Carom off the 3:
Pro's:

• Nothing straight in for Deuel, at least.

Con's:

• Nothing toward my hole.

• the 11 banks.

• If I get bad, the 10 kicks still.

3-Cushion leave off the 14:
Pro's:

• Nothing straight in for Deuel, at least. (maybe)

Con's:

• If I'm short, the 11 banks.

• If I'm long I can sell the 10-kick

• If I over stroke it I can sell the 10-kick or the 10 straight-in

Bank the 1:
Pro's:

• Moves the 1 toward my hole.

• Can be played safe behind the 2-5

Con's:

• If I come up short on the safe, I leave Deuel straght-in.

• Mis-hit could yield neither the 1 nor the 7 near my pocket. (net punt)

Bank the 7:
Pro's:

• Moves the 7 toward my hole.

Con's: (Where to begin?)

• Scratch if mis-hit

• Whitey is all over the place (Might get safe with hard left behind the 2-5 again, but there's traffic)

• I want everyone I play to shoot this shot against me

I think that's all the balls that can be seen from there. You might be able to see the edge of the 2, but there is no reason to want to. I also didn't analyze other sensless kicks (or the bank on the 14) or intentional fouls since the result is the same as other analyzed shots (10-kick, straight-ins for Deuel, or just another punt).

From this, I think I'd have to shoot the 1. That's the only shot with an up-side.

Some feedback, which I assume you are looking for...
Of your options, banking the 1-ball or caroming off the 3-ball are the only ones that have much of a chance imo to help vs hurt from here.

Kick the 10: No way would I kick at the 10 unless it was hanging in the pocket -- in which case I would. But from here, way too many bad things could happen and there isn't much to gain even if you hit it perfect.

Stunt the 12 or the 13, stick there: Both of these shots leave you stuck on "the wrong side of the balls" -- that is a big no-no in a situation like this because you are leaving the cue ball conveniently right where your opponent wants it. he can take a scratch an leave you there, or possibly skim or bump more balls to his side and leave you somewhere else bad. Also, neither of those caroms appear to send a ball in a good direction for you as I see it.

3-cushion off the 14: Its a pretty small window between the 11 and 15, which is where you would intend to end up I presume, and the 14 isn't going to go somewhere to help you, so not much to gain either. And, you can get between the 11 & 15 by simply caroming off the 3 directly...

Bank the 7: you would be jacked up over balls to greatly add to an already difficult bank, and I don't see any decent tracks for the cue ball to go -- just trouble... Way too tough and too many ways to egregiously sell out.

 

[Island Drive]

If the table is real fast....12 ball combo bank freeze on the 13....but the cue ball may be too close to the 12....therefore that dbl blocker upper left, stuck out like a neon light.

 

[vapros]

I'm always watching for these 2-5 combinations, especially since the day I hit one and made both balls!

 

[Frank Almanza]

I can't see SVB playing anything but the one or off the three ball. Off the one you would have to bank it short to make sure you get it some where near your hole because of that ball near the side pocket. Hitting the one ball short means a fuller hit on the ball which makes it more difficult to get the cue ball behind the two and five balls. Although I believe Shane has the skill so do that at a high percentage.

Softly off the three and leaving him tight to the 15 ball to prevent him from playing off the balls that are up table. With no balls near your hole and allowing him to get you behind the two and five balls would put you in a bigger bind. Not letting him see the balls up table and forcing him to play with the other balls may get you a better opportunity to slowly get out of trouble.

By getting the cue ball close to the 15 ball you can anticipate his options. For one, the only offensive shot he would have is the bank on the 11 ball to pocket the ten, but the six will prevent him from controlling the cue ball. I'm interested in seeing what SVB did.

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

Does anybody like taking a foul from here? You'll be down -2 to -1. If Corey kicks the 10 in he removes your problem for you and the score is -2 to 0. He won't shoot the 1 or 14 with the 7 sitting there. He won't kick 1 rail at the 12/13 because it's too tough and he may give up a bank. He could always shoot the 4/12 combo-bank into the 13,8 or 6 ball and make one but he'd risk leaving a bank if he missed. Anyone like this?

P.S. I'd like banking the 1 ball but it doesn't look like a natural rolling angle to put the cueball behind the 2/5.

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

Shane rolled the cueball off the 3 ball:





He left Corey here, easy to see the next shot: