Sylver Ochoa vs. Mike Surber 2009 DCC

[Cowboy Dennis]

After looking at the actual angle and distance of the balls, (1 ball from rail) I can understand why Sylver banked the 13 ball.

Billy I.

To my eyes, the pics I posted showed the reason why the 1 ball was the shot. I guess we see it different.

Right before this layout came up, Sylver had a 7-0 lead. Mike ran 5 balls(starting with an ill-advised straight-back, selling out the game if he missed it) and jawed up the 6th. Sylver had to shoot it in making the score 7-6. I believe that Sylver was a little snake-bit after giving up such a big lead and wanted to shoot the shot that allowed him to stroke a shot. He never even glanced at the one ball. He treated it as if it wasn't there. I think he was just scared to hit the 1 ball at pocket speed after the shooting exhibition that Mike had just displayed.

Dennis

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

oh, I see now... everyone's changing their tune now!!! Red saw right away the 1 looked like a tough shot with getting out of the double kiss and still making it with pocket speed. So he elected to shoot the much easier shot to win the game.

[the above post is not to be interpeted as a brag, it's a dig, because of my 2 and 15 record of not choosing the right shot ]

I'm not changing my tune Greg, I still think you're wrong . I thought the pics showed even more clearly why the 1 ball was the shot. If anything, the shot(1 ball) looks easier in the pics than it did on the WEI layout I originally posted.

Dennis

 

[fred bentivegna]

Still singing the same tune

Still singing the same tune

I'm not changing my tune Greg, I still think you're wrong . I thought the pics showed even more clearly why the 1 ball was the shot. If anything, the shot(1 ball) looks easier in the pics than it did on the WEI layout I originally posted.

Dennis

I certainly aint changed. I am also curious as to why no one addressed the post I made about the importance of winning the game the earliest and best way you can. Especially if you have a better than even money shot to do it.

Here is the question. This is the best way to look at these options.

Put yourself in Surber's place. Which shot would you like to see him shoot?

Beard

 

[gulfportdoc]

Ochoa shot the wrong shot, but won the game anyway. But someone should tell that boy how to dress; especially for the TV table.

Doc

 

[wincardona]

I certainly aint changed. I am also curious as to why no one addressed the post I made about the importance of winning the game the earliest and best way you can. Especially if you have a better than even money shot to do it.

Here is the question. This is the best way to look at these options.

Put yourself in Surber's place. Which shot would you like to see him shoot?

Beard

Your reasoning doesn't justify why the 1 ball bank was the correct shot. Just because the 1 ball bank was around 50% that in itself doesn't mean that that's the correct shot. Your forgetting that you're at least a 3/1 favorite from the position you are left in. You must factor in all possibilities before choosing your shot. I believe that Sylver chose the correct shot because he didn't like the angle of the bank, in terms of controlling the cue ball hitting it pocket speed. If Sylver misses the bank, he would leave Mike a fairly straight shot on the 13 ball with the ability to play natural position on his out ball. And also , the angle that I see isn't condusive for the Dixie Whistler shot. You must cut the 1 ball to avoid the kiss, and when you do that the bank becomes a more difficult shot, especially at a harder speed. If he had the angle to choke the bank, and if missed he would of then left Mike a cut shot on the 13 ball with little chance of playing position on his out ball, then Sylver may have chosen the bank. At least that's the way I see it.

Billy I.

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

I certainly aint changed. I am also curious as to why no one addressed the post I made about the importance of winning the game the earliest and best way you can. Especially if you have a better than even money shot to do it.

Here is the question. This is the best way to look at these options.

Put yourself in Surber's place. Which shot would you like to see him shoot?

Beard

Freddy,

Well at least one person ain't going crazy, and just when I felt all alone in the wilderness .

Freddy, this whole thread has mostly been about winning the game with one of these two shots, people just see things different sometimes(if they're blind). Hey, that's me .

Cowboy "can't believe anyone still likes the cross-corner" Dennis

 

[One Pocket Ghost]

Your reasoning doesn't justify why the 1 ball bank was the correct shot. Just because the 1 ball bank was around 50% that in itself doesn't mean that that's the correct shot. Your forgetting that you're at least a 3/1 favorite from the position you are left in. You must factor in all possibilities before choosing your shot. I believe that Sylver chose the correct shot because he didn't like the angle of the bank, in terms of controlling the cue ball hitting it pocket speed. If Sylver misses the bank, he would leave Mike a fairly straight shot on the 13 ball with the ability to play natural position on his out ball. And also , the angle that I see isn't condusive for the Dixie Whistler shot. You must cut the 1 ball to avoid the kiss, and when you do that the bank becomes a more difficult shot, especially at a harder speed. If he had the angle to choke the bank, and if missed he would of then left Mike a cut shot on the 13 ball with little chance of playing position on his out ball, then Sylver may have chosen the bank. At least that's the way I see it.

Billy I.

Billy.....I agree again with all that you've said here, most of which I alluded to in my post #59...

And, our 'can't miss/dead eye wei-table-banking-forum members' who seem to think the bank on
the one ball is a free-cinch-hanger need to realize two more factors involving Sylver's situation and shot choice...

#1. This is a tight pocket Diamond table that Sylver is playing on - the pocket is not going to be forgiving if he doesn't hit it perfect, and...

#2. None of the tables at the DCC can be counted on to roll straight when shooting at pocket speed....every year I've played on many of the tables there, and pocket-speed banks constantly roll off.

- Ghost

 

[wincardona]

Billy.....I agree again with all that you've said here, most of which I alluded to in my post #59...

And, our 'can't miss/dead eye wei-table-banking-forum members' who seem to think the bank on
the one ball is a free-cinch-hanger need to realize two more factors involving Sylver's situation and shot choice...

#1. This is a tight pocket Diamond table that Sylver is playing on - the pocket is not going to be forgiving if he doesn't hit it perfect, and...

#2. None of the tables at the DCC can be counted on to roll straight when shooting at pocket speed....every year I've played on many of the tables there, and pocket-speed banks constantly roll off.

- Ghost

Thank you, it looks like you worked yourself back into stroke.

 

[wincardona]

I certainly aint changed. I am also curious as to why no one addressed the post I made about the importance of winning the game the earliest and best way you can. Especially if you have a better than even money shot to do it.

Here is the question. This is the best way to look at these options.

Put yourself in Surber's place. Which shot would you like to see him shoot?

Beard

If I were Mike i'm hoping he shoots the 1 ball pocket speed. That way if he misses it I have a chance to win, in my next inning. Sylver cannot controll the cue ball banking the 1 ball, in terms of the angle he will leave for Mike in the event that he misses the bank. Sylver is at least a 3/1 favorite from this position, why give Mike a chance to win in his next inning? If the 1 ball was another 3 inches away from the rail, you would be able to choke the shot and slow the cue ball up. Then if you miss it you will leave Mike a cut angle on the 13 ball, which he won't even look at. But if you leave him fairly straight on the 13 ball, you can lose without coming back to the table.

Billy I.

 

[One Pocket Ghost]

Thank you, it looks like you worked yourself back into stroke.

No, I'm never in stroke...but I always know the right move...

 

[fred bentivegna]

Roll bad?

Roll bad?

Billy.....I agree again with all that you've said here, most of which I alluded to in my post #59...

And, our 'can't miss/dead eye wei-table-banking-forum members' who seem to think the bank on
the one ball is a free-cinch-hanger need to realize two more factors involving Sylver's situation and shot choice...

#1. This is a tight pocket Diamond table that Sylver is playing on - the pocket is not going to be forgiving if he doesn't hit it perfect, and...

#2. None of the tables at the DCC can be counted on to roll straight when shooting at pocket speed....every year I've played on many of the tables there, and pocket-speed banks constantly roll off.

- Ghost

Firstly, the tables at DCC roll better than any tourn I have ever played in, in my whole life. Ever, ever, ever.
I dream about guys passing up a better than even money game ender to shoot something marginal in order to play "safer." I say safer, not safe. The long cross corner can certainly bubble up and titty back into the other corner. And if it doesnt titty into the other corner there is no telling where the object ball will go if it does catch a couple of corner titties.

Finally, I shot this shot on my table and discovered that it is laying perfect to hit with speed and draw the q ball over to the long rail, at about dia, #1 and come back across the table and lay near the opposite long rail, leaving your oppo with a long 45 degree cut at best.

 

[wincardona]

Firstly, the tables at DCC roll better than any tourn I have ever played in, in my whole life. Ever, ever, ever.
I dream about guys passing up a better than even money game ender to shoot something marginal in order to play "safer." I say safer, not safe. The long cross corner can certainly bubble up and titty back into the other corner. And if it doesnt titty into the other corner there is no telling where the object ball will go if it does catch a couple of corner titties.

Finally, I shot this shot on my table and discovered that it is laying perfect to hit with speed and draw the q ball over to the long rail, at about dia, #1 and come back across the table and lay near the opposite long rail, leaving your oppo with a long 45 degree cut at best.

Fred, I realize that you are stuck on this Dixie Whistler thing, (shame) but shooting ths bank, with the angle shown at a hard speed is risky. There's a possibility that if missed the 1 ball could deflect to your opponents side of the table, right? Also, by shooting the bank with a hard speed you take away 90% of the hanging the ball possibility, and that's one of the strengths of choosing the 1 ball over the 13 ball. That's why I don't like the 1 ball bank at that speed, if you're going to shoot the 1 ball it is a better shot to hit with pocket speed. But then again hitting it with pocket speed puts you in a very tough position, if missed.

Let's talk about the 13 ball bank. Firstly Sylver shot the shot imo way to hard, he was actually playing safe and giving up all possibilities of winning with the bank. I would hit the bank by playing the high side of the pocket, with a medium soft speed. I figure to pocket the bank at least 25% of the time and win from this position over 75% of the time. (unless I dog it) Also hitting the bank with this speed you have a chance to hang it. I don't believe that you can get that good of a return with the 1 ball bank (win over 75%) with the angle it is on. Lets not forget that if the 1 ball bank is chosen the 13 ball will be on your opponents side of the table in a not so good of a position for you, and most likely it will stay there for several shots, making it more difficult for you to move until it's moved.

Finally, Sylver is a top player playing all games, and you must give him the respect he has earned by giving him the benefit of the doubt when he opted to shoot the 13 ball over the 1 ball, especially the way he hit the 13 ball. (all out safety) He disliked the 1 ball so much that he gave up any chances of winning on his shot. That's the way I see it.

Billy I.

 

[wincardona]

Firstly, the tables at DCC roll better than any tourn I have ever played in, in my whole life. Ever, ever, ever.
I dream about guys passing up a better than even money game ender to shoot something marginal in order to play "safer." I say safer, not safe. The long cross corner can certainly bubble up and titty back into the other corner. And if it doesnt titty into the other corner there is no telling where the object ball will go if it does catch a couple of corner titties.

Finally, I shot this shot on my table and discovered that it is laying perfect to hit with speed and draw the q ball over to the long rail, at about dia, #1 and come back across the table and lay near the opposite long rail, leaving your oppo with a long 45 degree cut at best.

Fred, think about what you're saying about the even money game ender. Being even money to pocket a shot for the game winner, doesn't mean that every time you're in that position that you should shoot the even money shot to win. What if you were a 10/1 favorite to win and there were balls around your opponents pocket and you had this bank, would you shoot the bank? Of course not. Same rule applies here, it's all about possibilities, and they all must be factored in before choosing your shot. Especially in such a crucial time in the game.

Your thinking makes me believe that you are quite capable of mismanaging youself, with my money. Now that wouldn't be any good for either of us.

Billy I.

 

[Deeman]

Your reasoning doesn't justify why the 1 ball bank was the correct shot. Just because the 1 ball bank was around 50% that in itself doesn't mean that that's the correct shot. Your forgetting that you're at least a 3/1 favorite from the position you are left in. You must factor in all possibilities before choosing your shot. I believe that Sylver chose the correct shot because he didn't like the angle of the bank, in terms of controlling the cue ball hitting it pocket speed. If Sylver misses the bank, he would leave Mike a fairly straight shot on the 13 ball with the ability to play natural position on his out ball. And also , the angle that I see isn't condusive for the Dixie Whistler shot. You must cut the 1 ball to avoid the kiss, and when you do that the bank becomes a more difficult shot, especially at a harder speed. If he had the angle to choke the bank, and if missed he would of then left Mike a cut shot on the 13 ball with little chance of playing position on his out ball, then Sylver may have chosen the bank. At least that's the way I see it.

Billy I.

Billie,

Thanks. Many of us spend a lot of time on these forums and breaking down your decison process is great to read. I know we all enoy the exchanges of strategy between you guys.

DeeMan

 

[One Pocket Ghost]

#2. Tables at the DCC can't be counted on to roll straight when shooting at pocket speed....every year I've played on many of the tables there, and pocket-speed banks constantly roll off.

- Ghost

Firstly, the tables at DCC roll better than any tourn I have ever played in, in my whole life. Ever, ever, ever.

Well, I hate to bet against my homey, but...

This can be another interesting prop bet, since supposedly, these DCC tables roll so straight.........I'm willing once again, to put my money where my mouth is...so let's see if my main man Freddy wants to bet on - "the straightest rolling tournament tables ever, ever, ever!"......

Here's my proposition....Freddy, we can bet even up - we'll walk around picking DCC tables at random and slow-roll a ball down each long rail to the corresponding corner pockets...if the balls roll straight, you win - if either ball rolls off, I win...we can even do it for cheap, say $10 per table....do I have action....

- Ghosty

 

[gulfportdoc]

Fred, think about what you're saying about the even money game ender. Being even money to pocket a shot for the game winner, doesn't mean that every time you're in that position that you should shoot the even money shot to win. What if you were a 10/1 favorite to win and there were balls around your opponents pocket and you had this bank, would you shoot the bank? Of corse not. Same rule applies here, it's all about possibilities, and they all must be factored in before choosing your shot. Especially in such a crucial time in the game.

One of the problems with the discussion of this layout is that there are several concepts of exactly how the 1-ball lays. To my eye, I don't see any problem banking the 1 straight back at pocket speed and freezing, or nearly freezing, whitey on the short rail. It certainly would be the shot at my home room.

Keep in mind that the TV table is dry, slippery, and plays long. The only way to miss that 1 ball badly is if it's short-- driven into the foot rail. It could hit the first diamond from the corner on the long rail and still slide into the hole.

As it turned out, Ochoa chose the striped ball, and over cut it too hard. However I don't see how that bank could be made with "medium soft speed" on that slippery cloth.

The fact is, the best shot MIGHT not have been either of those. Ochoa probably could have soft rolled the striped ball to his side, letting the CB roll down to the foot rail. At that point Mike would have had no shot, and would be in danger of leaving Ochoa a bank on the 1.

Doc

 

[fred bentivegna]

This situation

This situation

Fred, think about what you're saying about the even money game ender. Being even money to pocket a shot for the game winner, doesn't mean that every time you're in that position that you should shoot the even money shot to win. What if you were a 10/1 favorite to win and there were balls around your opponents pocket and you had this bank, would you shoot the bank? Of corse not. Same rule applies here, it's all about possibilities, and they all must be factored in before choosing your shot. Especially in such a crucial time in the game.

Your thinking makes me believe that you are quite capable of mismanaging youself, with my money. Now that wouldn't be any good for either of us.

Billy I.

I believe I was speaking about this particular situation, not one where I was 10 to 1 and if I missed I would lose. I have preached against similar mistakes all my life. I am probably a little biased about that shot as it is probably my best go. (the Dixie Whistler)
Incidentally, while we are on the "dispute of the homies," one of the biggest offenders of shooting at something when he has a lead and should be looking to play safe is our own One Pocket Ghost. He will invariably choose a move rather than a passive safety that will lead to a game lock up. The reason I am choosing to release this secret info at this time is because he and I no longer play. That rashness has cost him boo coo games. Rather than take steam, pay attn pal, I am only trying to help.

I also didnt notice a mention of where the tables have rolled better in any other tourn.

Beard

Now, back to Billy. For some reason of other I have always remembered a shot that Sir William made at the Stardust tourn back in 72. He was behind in the game and was making an inspired run out. The game was for the match. I have forgotten who he was playing, but since the guy never got back to the table, its not important, but I remember enough that it was a top player. The guy had a ball hanging in his pocket the whole time during the run. He probably needed two. After several miracle shots Willy was left needing one. But he was about 6 or 7 ft away from a ball in the middle of the table and about a diamond and 1/2 off the rail. About a 1/4 ball cut. I immediately wondered what he was going to do. He never hesitated, got down quickly and freestroked the ball into the pocket -- with speed, cue ball multi -railing around the table. For some reason that situation and shot stuck in my mind. I can still visualize it clearly today.
Why didnt you just shoot the guys ball in the pocket and wait for a freebee? And how confident was that guy the next time he played you? What was it Burt Gordon told Fast Eddie? "Even some percentage players die broke."

 

[wincardona]

One of the problems with the discussion of this layout is that there are several concepts of exactly how the 1-ball lays. To my eye, I don't see any problem banking the 1 straight back at pocket speed and freezing, or nearly freezing, whitey on the short rail. It certainly would be the shot at my home room.

Keep in mind that the TV table is dry, slippery, and plays long. The only way to miss that 1 ball badly is if it's short-- driven into the foot rail. It could hit the first diamond from the corner on the long rail and still slide into the hole.

As it turned out, Ochoa chose the striped ball, and over cut it too hard. However I don't see how that bank could be made with "medium soft speed" on that slippery cloth.

The fact is, the best shot MIGHT not have been either of those. Ochoa probably could have soft rolled the striped ball to his side, letting the CB roll down to the foot rail. At that point Mike would have had no shot, and would be in danger of leaving Ochoa a bank on the 1.

Doc

I just returned home for the day and was curious to see the responses from my post about the decision Sylver made, and I agreed with. Doc I do realize that the 1 ball bank can be hit with pocket speed and be made, but imo the reason Sylver chose the 13 ball was because the 1 ball, even though it is an easier shot, didn't offer him any protection if he happened to miss it. Yes he probably could leave the cue ball frozen or close to the bottom rail, but where on the bottom rail? That's what he was concerned with. If he chose to bank the 1 ball with pocket speed he would of left the cue ball on a relatively straight angle on the 13 ball. So he decided that he wasn't going to give Mike that opportunity had he missed the bank. He then opted to bank at the 13 ball, and there isn't any slide to that shot with the angle he had. I believe he should of tried to win with the bank, but he didn't, considering the speed he hit it with and how badly he missed it. Yes this bank can be executed comfortably with a medium soft speed, and pocketed at least 25% of the time. Yes we will gamble lunch on this shot if you care to.

Billy I.

 

[One Pocket Ghost]

I believe I was speaking about this particular situation, not one where I was 10 to 1 and if I missed I would lose. I have preached against similar mistakes all my life. I am probably a little biased about that shot as it is probably my best go. (the Dixie Whistler)
Incidentally, while we are on the "dispute of the homies," one of the biggest offenders of shooting at something when he has a lead and should be looking to play safe is our own One Pocket Ghost. He will invariably choose a move rather than a passive safety that will lead to a game lock up. The reason I am choosing to release this secret info at this time is because he and I no longer play. Rather than take steam, I am only trying to help.

I also didnt notice a mention of where the tables have rolled better in any other tourn.

Beard

Take steam? - are you kidding?....I'm just having trouble trying to stop laughing at your ludicrous analysis of my game in your post - which I bolded...but thanks though - you might have helped me get action by telling people that I fire at my hole when I should be playing safe, lol.

- Ghost

PS, I didn't see any answer to my prop offer re. the rolling of the DCC tables...?

PPS, As for you asking > "I also didnt notice a mention of where the tables have rolled better in any other tourn. "

Why would I talk about tables at other tournaments? - That has nothing at all to do with my assertion re. the DCC tables.

 

[wincardona]

I believe I was speaking about this particular situation, not one where I was 10 to 1 and if I missed I would lose. I have preached against similar mistakes all my life. I am probably a little biased about that shot as it is probably my best go. (the Dixie Whistler)
Incidentally, while we are on the "dispute of the homies," one of the biggest offenders of shooting at something when he has a lead and should be looking to play safe is our own One Pocket Ghost. He will invariably choose a move rather than a passive safety that will lead to a game lock up. The reason I am choosing to release this secret info at this time is because he and I no longer play. That rashness has cost him boo coo games. Rather than take steam, pay attn pal, I am only trying to help.

I also didnt notice a mention of where the tables have rolled better in any other tourn.

Beard

Fred, my point is that just because a shot, either a bank or a straight in shot is even money to pocket, doesn't make it the right shot in every situation. You first must consider the score, where the balls are positioned, your options, and who you are playing before you shoot at game ball, or any shot in a game. That's why managing skills are important playing any game. You said that you aren't talking about a situation where you are 10/1. It doesn't matter if you're 10/1 or 7/5 all shots should be looked at as risk against return. In this situation you're at least a 3/1 favorite to win the game, so why do you think that banking the 1 ball pocket speed is the right shot if missed you leave your opponent a relatively straight angle on the 13 ball with natural position? Secondly, why would you opt to bank the 1 ball warp speed, and run the risk of losing if you hit it poorly? Don't forget that this type of a bank is easy to miss hitting it with a hard speed. Plus when you choose to bank this shot with a hard speed, you risk losing the game, not only because the missed bank could be sold out, but if it is sold out the 13 ball is positioned where your opponent can run out. I wouldn't shoot the 1 ball bank if I felyt that if missed I would leave the cue ball close to the bottom rail, on a straight angle. And I certainly wouldn't bank the 1 ball warp speed, that is not an option for me in this situation when there is a better option. Don't forget, you have a good option with the 13 ball.

Of course you're a favorite to win the game with your shot, but your at least a 3/1 favorite to win shooting the 13 ball. Are you a 3/1 favorite banking the 1 ball warp speed? That's what you have to figure out. So your even money to make the bank, but does that equate to you being at least a 3/1 favorite to win?

Billy I.