Ghost's Shot Choice #12

[One Pocket Ghost]

Here was an interesting situation/good wwyd, with a lot of options, that I was in the other day...

I have pocket A and I have 3 balls, my opponent has 4 balls...the pockets are average-tight 4-1/2"...I have a lot of choices, some safer, some more aggressive...

The one ball is a dead-ahead bank (probably about an 80% make for my speed or above)....I could roll it in, and have the cueball roll safely to the long rail (so if the bank hangs up, I won't sell out the 12 ball) but from there, if I want to shoot the cut shot on the 13 next, it won't be a sure thing - it will be a thin cut while shooting off the rail - could be a win or lose shot to shoot....or...

I can bank the 1 and stop the cueball right on top of the cluster, snookering my opponent from seeing the 12, or seeing the 1 if it ends up in front of my pocket - and if the 1 goes in, then I can bank the 11 next....or...

I could gamble on making the 1 for sure - roll in the bank, let the cueball stop halfway to the long rail, and have a cinch breakout shot on the 13 next...if I hang the bank, I'll be leaving him an easy shot on the 12 - but I'll be gambling that he won't get more than two balls, because the cluster-balls don't go in his pocket, and the 3ball doesn't pass the 11, so he can't play top to bottom position from the 3 - although he could get more than two by breaking up the cluster, or playing position for a short cross-corner bank.......or I could...

I can bank the 11, to make it, and play position for the 3...or I could bank it into the cluster, possibly making a ball, or sending several balls towards my pocket, and sending the cueball down to the bottom right area of the table...

What would you guys choose to do?...

I'll tell later what I did and how it turned out.

- Ghost

 

[WillieNilly]

Mr. Ghost, i would also factor in the "how much would it hurt if i went for the 1ball playing for poe on the 13 and happen to miss" factor. Since you said that you figure your opponent wouldnt get out with a shot on the 12 i say your chances look better then his to win if you shoot it anyway.
As for me i think the 1ball is a good shot to shot in that situation, BUT..if i wasnt feelin confident and talked myself out of the 1ball Im shooting the 11..... but lag it to the hole...cue to side rail area.......leave the cluster intact and blocking him/her from seeing it (11)....but im not trying to make it especially if the stack lies in my favor as it does., if it falls next shot is bank the 4 if it lies good or if not just knock the 12 away.
sounds like a plan

 

[SJDinPHX]

Here was an interesting situation that I was in the other day...

I have pocket A and I have 3 balls, my opponent has 4 balls...the pockets are average-tight 4-3/8"...I have a lot of choices, some safer, some more aggressive...

The one ball is a dead-ahead bank (probably about an 80-90% make for my speed or above)....I could roll it in, and have the cueball roll safely almost to the long rail (so if the bank hangs up, I won't sell out the 12 ball) but from there, if I want to shoot the cut shot on the 13 next, it is not a sure thing - could be a win or lose shot to shoot...........or...

I can bank the 1 and stop the cueball right on top of the cluster, snookering my opponent from seeing the 12, or seeing the 1 if it ends up in front of my pocket - and if the 1 goes in, then I can bank the 11 next..........or...

I could gamble on making the 1 for sure - roll in the bank, let the cueball stop halfway to the long rail, and have a cinch breakout shot on the 13 next...if I hang the bank, I'll be leaving him an easy shot on the 12 - but I'll be gambling that he won't get more than two balls, because the cluster-balls don't go in his pocket, and the 3ball doesn't pass the 11, so he can't play top to bottom position from the 3 - although he could get more than two by breaking up the cluster, or playing position for a short cross-corner bank.......or I could...

I can bank the 11, to make it, and play position for the 3...or I could bank it into the cluster, posiibly making a ball, or sending several balls towards my pocket, and sending the cueball down to the bottom right area of the table...

What would you guys do?...

I actually wound up shooting a slight variation of one of the shots I mentioned - I'll tell it later.<---The truth please !!

- Ghost

Let me guess !...You cleverly decided to bank the 11 ball, with a little draw...you missed it a mile, double banked it toward the other guy's pocket, and scratched in the upper corner pocket...

But, not to worry..as the cue ball was headed for the pocket, you wielded your "Samuri Sword/cue stick".. and decapitated your opponent...

This accomplished two things...You didn't have to pay off the $3.00 you were playing for, and gave you a free shot at the poor guys wife, at his funeral..

SherlockDuck <---Solves another mystery !!!

 

[Deadon]

Bank the 11, put the cue ball on the end rail next to the 4, using the 3 for cover if the 11 doesn't go.

 

[wgcp]

Since I have played you... you probably shot the one, went for the block with the three balls and made the one... then banked the 11, went three rails for the position on the 13... made the break shot and ran the other two...

I was the victim to you using a two or three rail position shot in a bunch of games... you definitely are not afraid of shooting it...

Just saying...

B

 

[NH Steve]

I believe I would shoot at the 1-ball with follow. If I wasn't satisfied at my angle for the 13-ball next, I would still have a perfectly clear shot to remove the 12 from my opponent's hole. It looks like depending on the english used on the 1-ball, you could make the cue ball brush the 5-ball at the top of that little cluster and thusly get a little better angle on the 13. That's my shot.

 

[lll]

Since I have played you... you probably shot the one, went for the block with the three balls and made the one... then banked the 11, went three rails for the position on the 13... made the break shot and ran the other two...

I was the victim to you using a two or three rail position shot in a bunch of games... you definitely are not afraid of shooting it...

Just saying...

B

^^^what he said

 

[jrhendy]

Here was an interesting situation that I was in the other day...

I have pocket A and I have 3 balls, my opponent has 4 balls...the pockets are average-tight 4-3/8"...I have a lot of choices, some safer, some more aggressive...

The one ball is a dead-ahead bank (probably about an 80-90% make for my speed or above)....I could roll it in, and have the cueball roll safely almost to the long rail (so if the bank hangs up, I won't sell out the 12 ball) but from there, if I want to shoot the cut shot on the 13 next, it is not a sure thing - could be a win or lose shot to shoot...........or...

I can bank the 1 and stop the cueball right on top of the cluster, snookering my opponent from seeing the 12, or seeing the 1 if it ends up in front of my pocket - and if the 1 goes in, then I can bank the 11 next..........or...

I could gamble on making the 1 for sure - roll in the bank, let the cueball stop halfway to the long rail, and have a cinch breakout shot on the 13 next...if I hang the bank, I'll be leaving him an easy shot on the 12 - but I'll be gambling that he won't get more than two balls, because the cluster-balls don't go in his pocket, and the 3ball doesn't pass the 11, so he can't play top to bottom position from the 3 - although he could get more than two by breaking up the cluster, or playing position for a short cross-corner bank.......or I could...

I can bank the 11, to make it, and play position for the 3...or I could bank it into the cluster, posiibly making a ball, or sending several balls towards my pocket, and sending the cueball down to the bottom right area of the table...

What would you guys do?...

I actually wound up shooting a slight variation of one of the shots I mentioned - I'll tell it later.

- Ghost

If you bank the one with follow and miss it, I am kicking in my ball in and either making the one or taking it out next.

I would bank the one with stun and freeze on the cluster. If I made it my next shot would be to bank the three.

 

[wincardona]

You say your an 80% to 90% favorite to make the bank, seems a little high from the angle shown but if you think that your that kind of a favorite then banking the 1 ball and playing position for the 13 ball would be an easy decision for me. Lets say your make% drops to 65%to 70% by playing position for the 13 ball, which imo would make you at least a 3/2 favorite to win the game. Considering all the uncertainties following the choice of my shot, one can only assume the win %. Banking the 1 ball and playing position for the 13 ball is a green light decision for me if my make % on the bank is 60% or higher. Based off of this situation, in regard to ball count and position of the balls.

Billy I.

 

[wincardona]

If you bank the one with follow and miss it, I am kicking in my ball in and either making the one or taking it out next.

I would bank the one with stun and freeze on the cluster. If I made it my next shot would be to bank the three.

Banking the 3 ball next is a tough shot, in terms of the accuracy of both the 3 ball and the cue ball.


If I were to play the bank and stick, my next shot would be to either bank the 11 ball, or bank the 11 ball into the cluster and play a good cue ball. Also by choosing the 11 ball as your next shot you will move the 11 ball from his side to yours.

By the way John, I agree that if you not going to try to bank the 1 ball and play position for the 13 ball your choice would then be imo the best choice of the remaining options. With your choice you will cinch the 1 ball and improve your position, but if you choose the 11 ball as your next shot you will not only cinch the 1 ball you will also improve your position with a chance to win immediately, if you happen to score a ball with the 11 ball.

Billy I.

 

[wincardona]

I believe I would shoot at the 1-ball with follow. If I wasn't satisfied at my angle for the 13-ball next, I would still have a perfectly clear shot to remove the 12 from my opponent's hole. It looks like depending on the english used on the 1-ball, you could make the cue ball brush the 5-ball at the top of that little cluster and thusly get a little better angle on the 13. That's my shot.

I really don't like the choice of banking the 1 ball and following the cue ball to the rail, considering the position of the 11..3..and 4 balls. All the balls mentioned favor your opponents pocket, and considering the make % of the bank shooting the 1 ball you must try to improve your position at this time, or you'll be facing an up hill battle with the odds against you for possibly the rest of the game. Hate to be overly critical but imo this option should not be an option.:sorry

I'm assuming that you won't get a shot on the 13 ball next, by choosing the option to follow to the side rail. But if the angle suggest that you will brush the 5 ball and end up with a reasonable shot on the 13 ball, I would then commit myself before the 1 ball bank to go for the run out, knowing approx where the cue ball would end up after banking the 1 ball.

In this position the way the balls are laying you either go all out to win the game, or you cinch the 1 ball and shoot the 11 ball next to rearrange the position of the balls and the cue ball to favor you.

Playing timidly in situations like this one will inevitably cost you more than it will help you.

Billy I.

 

[fred bentivegna]

Sorry, not this time...

Sorry, not this time...

...you'all have landed on a shot that I teach all my OnePocket pupils. I never see anybody but me ever shoot it. (Bugs was an exception, but he is dead. That just leaves me)

I am however, going to be a pill and not release. I'm choosing to avoid all the usual astute criticisms that would of course, follow.

Beard

The main reason, actually, is I dont want to look at in DCC with the Ghost or John H shooting it against me.

 

[androd]

Banking the 3 ball next is a tough shot, in terms of the accuracy of both the 3 ball and the cue ball.

Billy I.

If you bank the one ball and draw back an inch or two, then the bank on the 3 ball is easier and the CB will hide behind the 11 ball and the pack.
Although if you make it you may not have another shot.
Rod.
P.S. I'd bank the 11 ball and play for a free shot on the 13 ball and maybe out.

 

[wincardona]

...you'all have landed on a shot that I teach all my OnePocket pupils. I never see anybody but me ever shoot it. (Bugs was an exception, but he is dead. That just leaves me)

I am however, going to be a pill and not release. I'm choosing to avoid all the usual astute criticisms that would of course, follow.

Beard

The main reason, actually, is I dont want to look at in DCC with the Ghost or John H shooting it against me.

This to me is very interesting if you're going to shoot any ball other than the 1 ball. I see another shot, banking the 11 ball and positioning the cue ball by the 4 ball, but I wouldn't shoot that shot from this position because of the value you get with the 1 ball choice.:sorry But then again maybe that's not your choice of possible options, waiting patiently.

Billy I.

 

[tonygreen]

Ghost , I have a question, what are your percentages to make the bank on the 11 ...?

 

[wincardona]

If you bank the one ball and draw back an inch or two, then the bank on the 3 ball is easier and the CB will hide behind the 11 ball and the pack.
Although if you make it you may not have another shot.
Rod.
P.S. I'd bank the 11 ball and play for a free shot on the 13 ball and maybe out.

Rod, to me it's very hard not to shoot the 1 ball, considering the make % and your ability to control the cue ball off the shot. Choosing the 11 ball bank first is certainly a sacrifice of at least a ball, plus your running out possibilities is lessened by not ending up with the angle on the 13 ball to open up the cluster of balls to increase your chance of running out.

Billy I.

 

[androd]

Rod, to me it's very hard not to shoot the 1 ball, considering the make % and your ability to control the cue ball off the shot. Choosing the 11 ball bank first is certainly a sacrifice of at least a ball, plus your running out possibilities is lessened by not ending up with the angle on the 13 ball to open up the cluster of balls to increase your chance of running out.

Billy I.

You're probably correct. After looking again the 8 ball may not go as easily as I thought.
Rod.

 

[One Pocket Ghost]

It looks like depending on the english used on the 1-ball, you could make the cue ball brush the 5-ball at the top of that little cluster and thusly get a little better angle on the 13. That's my shot.

However it may look on the wei table, as I said previously, the bank angle is dead ahead - you can't brush the 5ball.

You say your an 80% to 90% favorite to make the bank, seems a little high from the angle shown
Billy I.

Maybe my estimate of 80-90% was a little high - probably a straight 80% is a better estimate.

Ghost , I have a question, what are your percentages to make the bank on the 11 ...?

I'm working right now Tony - let me think about it and I'll post again later today.


- Ghost

PS, I believe Freddy's shot is still to bank the 1 - but with his own method.

 

[androd]

However it may look on the wei table, as I said previously, the bank angle is dead ahead

In this case I'm banking the one ball and shaping for the 13 ball and break.
Rod.
P.S. The bank looked a little hinky on the Wii table. Or maybe I'm a little hinky with my blurry vision.

 

[One Pocket Ghost]

Ghost , I have a question, what are your percentages to make the bank on the 11 ...?

Tough to say exactly Tony....but I would guesstimate that for myself or another good banker, the make percentage would be about 30%...and for a top-speed banker like John B. or Shannon D. - maybe 40-50%....maybe Freddy, Billy, SJDuck (if he could make a serious reply for a change, unlike his post at the beginning of this non-joking thread )the Johns, etc. will chime in with their estimates - It would be informative to see what they think.

- Ghost