Statistics showing the break has minimal effect on game outcome

LSJohn

Verified Member
Joined
Aug 15, 2013
Messages
7,759
I were to spot you the break, according to your thinking, you would have to spot me 8/7 to make it an even game again... correct?

In theory, if the break was worth 1 ball, this would stand to reason if the players were of equal skill...
Of course that 8-7 plays in every game, but you're giving up the break in only half the games. Trading one for the other is the equivalent of rating the break as a 2 ball advantage that you're giving up half the time.

Two other factors that most of us seem to agree on: The better players are more likely to find a way to get out of the break, and; the better the two players are, the less often a 2 ball spot determines who wins a game.
 

androd

Verified Member
Joined
Dec 10, 2008
Messages
7,143
Of course that 8-7 plays in every game, but you're giving up the break in only half the games. Trading one for the other is the equivalent of rating the break as a 2 ball advantage that you're giving up half the time.

Two other factors that most of us seem to agree on: The better players are more likely to find a way to get out of the break, and; the better the two players are, the less often a 2 ball spot determines who wins a game.
You're right John 8/7 and even would be right, if the break is worth 1 ball.
I believe it's worth a little more, especially the longer you play, occasionally it's worth the whole game.
 
Last edited:

beatle

Verified Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2009
Messages
2,174
if 8/7 is the right matchup with the break for two particular players it doesnt matter which side you take it is even and no picking can change that.

it is nothing more than arguing which is better heads or tails, if the coin is perfectly even.
 

Jakie

Verified Member
Joined
Oct 6, 2005
Messages
182
Stats/Break

Stats/Break

There is nothing more brutal than giving up weight (including the break) and grinding out a win in a long tough game only to have your opponent come to the table and lay down a nightmare break on you. especially if you are racing or playing an "ahead"set and you are hill/hill. Regardless of what the statistics say, in this particular game in this particular race anything can happen. I will not give up the breaks regardless in a race/freeeze out bet. Although in a per game situation I would entertain giving away the breaks if I was very confident with the game.( but not very likely). Too many moving parts with the break. Give an extra ball if you think you have the best of it but don't give away the control you have in 50% of the games. I have listened and learned from some good hustlers and this is pretty much consensus among these guys. FWIW
 

El Chapo

Verified Member
Joined
Oct 28, 2016
Messages
1,562
I’m not sure it got brought up in the thread, I do tend to notice this pattern...

You can lose the game on the break shot real easy. We all know that. A bad hit, or a weird rack and a ball comes out for the other guy, a scratch, or all of the above.

That stat in the op is such an interesting one to me. I know there have been some great thoughts on where it came from. I do think the break was more valuable 20 years ago myself. If I had to guess why I’d say it’s because players are now willing to be much more aggressive, on average, imo.
 
Top