efren scott again

lll

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well scott decided to shoot the 7?
he missed it hit the 2 balls clustered
left efren a shot (see diagram)
and efren ran a very artfull out
se2.jpg

se3.jpg
 

lll

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i had the advantage of seeing scott miss before i posted the wwyd
so i was interested in who thought shooting was the right shot
its never smart to disagree with frank or dr. bill
but i think i would force efren to have to break up the cluster while he is trying to run out rather than do it for him and leave the balls in that part of the table where the action is
also to me the cut shot on the spotted ball is more appealing if i will NOT break up that cluster for the reasons above about not wanting to break up the cluster
jmho
 

Tom Wirth

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Well, in my opinion I can't blame Scott for shooting the seven from here. He believes in himself and he obviously believed he would make that ball and win the game outright. Sure, he could have played any of several safeties and forced an up-table game all but locking it up. There is no question about that.

I've no doubt Scott weighed the consequences for missing that seven ball. My question for Scott would be; "What was going through his mind at the time he was pulling the trigger?" Was he fully committed to the shot? If he was and just missed it, well that's how it goes, but if he missed it without being fully committed to the shot than that's another matter all together.

Tom
 

gulfportdoc

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IF you are not going to shoot
this to me is the prudent shot
would like others opinions on this ...
IMO it's not prudent to leave a decent player at the head of the table with this layout. There are too many ways he can shoot toward his hole, including a probable cross-corner on the stripe (11?) which the shooter just banked over that way. Leaving the CB on the foot rail is much more preferable.

For average players, Bill's safe off the 7 ball, or 12squared's safe by cutting in the 11 ball would be the best choices.

~Doc
 

lll

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IMO it's not prudent to leave a decent player at the head of the table with this layout. There are too many ways he can shoot toward his hole, including a probable cross-corner on the stripe (11?) which the shooter just banked over that way. Leaving the CB on the foot rail is much more preferable.

For average players, Bill's safe off the 7 ball, or 12squared's safe by cutting in the 11 ball would be the best choices.

~Doc
......agree 100%
 

wincardona

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Bottom line, in situations like this one where you have a shot to win the game needing one ball to your opponents seven with balls in play, you need to be ..at least a 90% favorite to pocket the ball to choose the option. I say this because by missing the ball you cut your win % down from "double digits" to a number much..much smaller. Not to mention that you're sending a message to your opponent that you are a loose player and that in itself is a disadvantage. Playing a solid game is the best way to play if you like winning, it beats the hell out of playing "spectacularly"

Just my opinion.

Dr. Bill
 

Island Drive

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Shoot this and stick the cue ball right there.
View attachment 14115
That's the shot I like, but I'd draw back behind the six, with draw naturally banking the carom long.

Minutes later....after reading the other threads, and the shooter needing only one ball to win, I'd also cut the ball in for the win since I only need one.
 
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wincardona

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Bottom line, in situations like this one where you have a shot to win the game needing one ball to your opponents seven with balls in play, you need to be ..at least a 90% favorite to pocket the ball to choose the option. I say this because by missing the ball you cut your win % down from "double digits" to a number much..much smaller. Not to mention that you're sending a message to your opponent that you are a loose player and that in itself is a disadvantage. Playing a solid game is the best way to play if you like winning, it beats the hell out of playing "spectacularly"

Just my opinion.

Dr. Bill
OOPS!! Especially if you're playing a monster, like Reyes. You don't pee in the wind, nor pull the mask off the Lone Ranger, and you don't mess around with HIM.

Dr. Bill
 

Tom Wirth

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Bottom line, in situations like this one where you have a shot to win the game needing one ball to your opponents seven with balls in play, you need to be ..at least a 90% favorite to pocket the ball to choose the option. I say this because by missing the ball you cut your win % down from "double digits" to a number much..much smaller. Not to mention that you're sending a message to your opponent that you are a loose player and that in itself is a disadvantage. Playing a solid game is the best way to play if you like winning, it beats the hell out of playing "spectacularly"

Just my opinion.

Dr. Bill
Bill, I hope you don't see the cut on the seven as anything "spectacular." Decisions like the one Scott was faced with has a lot to do with his degree of confidence at the time . Your assessment of the percentages to choose the seven ball shot are of course correct, but how those percentages are calculated are always going to be based in subjectivity. Tough call either way.

One other thought as i see it. Playing Efren in my opinion adds a little more weight to the cut shot. If Scott were playing a weak player there would be no need at all for him to take even the smallest risk by shooting the seven. I wonder what Efren's winning percentages are in situations like this when players elect to choose the safety as opposed to the cut. Still low I would think but I would also think still higher than most anyone else.

Your thoughts?

TOm
 

Billy Jackets

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IF you are not going to shoot
this to me is the prudent shot
would like others opinions on this


i will let you know what scott shot after i milk this alittle more...:D
I like this shot if you can put the 11 on the same line as the cue ball and nine ball with the nine blocking a hit on the 11.
{ I did get the 11 ball in an arc in front of the pocket 3 times a diamond away}
Unfortunately, I could not get the balls to react that way in 10 tries.
If I got the cueball in the corner, the 11 ball was in the center of the table, if I got the 11 ball right , the cue ball was short and it left it available, to take it out.
If I put the cueball, 9 and 11 in a line, I was never deep enough in the corner to not leave a bank on the 2, that top players will probably shoot.
Maybe I did not have them set up exactly as shown , but I tried as hard as I could to make it accurate.
I hit the first shot with too much angle and hit the 6, knocking it in the jaws of the pocket lol.
I guess that's the shot!{j/k}
 
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wincardona

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Bill, I hope you don't see the cut on the seven as anything "spectacular." Decisions like the one Scott was faced with has a lot to do with his degree of confidence at the time . Your assessment of the percentages to choose the seven ball shot are of course correct, but how those percentages are calculated are always going to be based in subjectivity. Tough call either way.

One other thought as i see it. Playing Efren in my opinion adds a little more weight to the cut shot. If Scott were playing a weak player there would be no need at all for him to take even the smallest risk by shooting the seven. I wonder what Efren's winning percentages are in situations like this when players elect to choose the safety as opposed to the cut. Still low I would think but I would also think still higher than most anyone else.

Your thoughts?

TOm
Tom, Spectacular in the context that I used the word is somewhat misleading, imo cutting at the 7ball with the score the way it is, and playing one of the greatest ball runners in the game is clearly a risky option. Yes, I consider that playing more spectacular like than playing a comfortable solid like safety. In regard to the shooter, Scott being an upper echelon player but not necessarily an upper echelon ball striker stepped out a little more than I think he should have by opting to shoot the 7ball, for that matter I really don't feel that any player regardless of their ball striking ability should choose the 7ball option, considering the situation, jmo.

In regard to your assessment on when to gamble and when not to gamble, as the above quote stated. "If Scott were playing a weak player there would be no need at all for him to take even the smallest risk by shooting the seven" Tom, I see that opposite of how you see it. Imo, when playing a ball runner like Reyes you shouldn't want to gamble with a "curious" shot because of the consequence involved if you should happen to miss it. Playing a weaker player you can afford to gamble in this type of a situation, for obvious reasons. I'm really surprised that you see it differently, unless i'm totally wrong with my way of thinking.

I'm not trying to play results but Scott chose the 7ball and missed it and lost the game. I was doing commentary with Varner (I believe this match) on this match, or maybe it was another match where Scott was playing Reyes and missed a shot I believe he shouldn't of shot needing only one ball to Reyes seven and both me and Varner shook our heads in disbelief. Varner also agreed that Scott chose the wrong option considering the situation.

Dr. Bill
 

lll

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^^^^
yes bill you were commentating with varner this match
i would have to go back and listen but i dont think either one of you were fans of shooting the solid
 

lll

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I like this shot if you can put the 11 on the same line as the cue ball and nine ball with the nine blocking a hit on the 11.
{ I did get the 11 ball in an arc in front of the pocket 3 times a diamond away}
Unfortunately, I could not get the balls to react that way in 10 tries.
If I got the cueball in the corner, the 11 ball was in the center of the table, if I got the 11 ball right , the cue ball was short and it left it available, to take it out.
If I put the cueball, 9 and 11 in a line, I was never deep enough in the corner to not leave a bank on the 2, that top players will probably shoot.
Maybe I did not have them set up exactly as shown , but I tried as hard as I could to make it accurate.
I hit the first shot with too much angle and hit the 6, knocking it in the jaws of the pocket lol.
I guess that's the shot!{j/k}
billy
i used this shot more to use as an example of playing the score than shooting at your hole in this game
those that advocated a safety that put the cue ball on the foot rail
as gulfport doc mentioned is probably a better place for the cue ball
 

Wayne

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The funny thing is, if the same type of shot came up again in a similar situation for Scott, he would shoot it again.

He made 2 mistakes, besides undercutting the shot he did not apply proper english to the cueball. If he had hit it low with a touch of outside english the cueball would not have run away and the three balls would have been on his side or near his side.
 

Wayne

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OOPS!! Especially if you're playing a monster, like Reyes. You don't pee in the wind, nor pull the mask off the Lone Ranger, and you don't mess around with HIM.

Dr. Bill
Also, don't pull on Superman's cape.

This was how Scott lost his recognition of being the best one pocket player. While playing Alex on the very tight pockets at Hard Times he fired at a number of shots where a safety would have worked a lot better. The misses led to run outs by Alex.

However, Scott's aggressive style made him into a champion and it might be a huge mistake to try to change his style.
 

straightback

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Even against the likes of an Efren Reyes, it is hard to see how cutting at that ball when you're up 7-2 is a good shot. Not buying it.
 

Frank Almanza

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Bottom line is that Scott hit it poorly and used bad speed, for a player of his caliber. That seven ball if missed should have been left in the jaws and unbankable.
 

onepockethacker

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This is like anything else.. its easy to second guess results.. If Scott passed up the shot on the 7 and went on to lose the game people would be saying they can't believe a player of Scotts caliber passed up the cut on the 7 to win the game... If he passed on the 7 ball and went on to win the game they would say Scott used his experience and knowledge and chose to play the score instead of going for risky 7 ball shot... If he made the 7 ball everyone would be saying you have to shoot that if you want to win.. meanwhile he missed it and Efren made a great out and now we are here... Bottom line is as Tom pointed out alot of times its abut how you feel and how confident you are..
Normally I always play the score and would generally opt for playing Dr. Billys safety however playing Efren I would be tempted to cut the 7 ball and end the game right there.. If you miss it you have to make sure you at least hang the ball so Efren can't go for the bank on the 2 ball up table during his run.. If you hang the 7 ball Efren will have to give it to make it and scratch with those 2 balls up table so he will still need 3 and you 1.. I just can't believe how bad Scott hit it.
 

Wayne

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This is like anything else.. its easy to second guess results.. If Scott passed up the shot on the 7 and went on to lose the game people would be saying they can't believe a player of Scotts caliber passed up the cut on the 7 to win the game... If he passed on the 7 ball and went on to win the game they would say Scott used his experience and knowledge and chose to play the score instead of going for risky 7 ball shot... If he made the 7 ball everyone would be saying you have to shoot that if you want to win.. meanwhile he missed it and Efren made a great out and now we are here... Bottom line is as Tom pointed out alot of times its abut how you feel and how confident you are..
Normally I always play the score and would generally opt for playing Dr. Billys safety however playing Efren I would be tempted to cut the 7 ball and end the game right there.. If you miss it you have to make sure you at least hang the ball so Efren can't go for the bank on the 2 ball up table during his run.. If you hang the 7 ball Efren will have to give it to make it and scratch with those 2 balls up table so he will still need 3 and you 1.. I just can't believe how bad Scott hit it.
My guess is the ball skidded.
 

Tom Wirth

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Bill, you and Nick were in the booth for this one. So you both were thinking before Scott's cut shot that he was choosing the wrong shot. I can see your point plainly enough and I agree with your evaluation of the situation but I also see Scott's point of view here. Confidence is a two edged sword. It can bring great and positive results and it can also be overused bringing disaster like it did in this case.

I just wonder if this wwyd would have been a topic of discussion had Scott made the seven. I doubt it.

Tom
 
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