Donn vs. John 12 - end game situation - wwyd?

Kybanks

Verified Member
Joined
Jul 27, 2015
Messages
833
Damn...I just gotta say that we've got some guys on here who are freakin' stealth bomber-deadly with their mouse...don't even matter if they hafta load up with english from dead offa the rail neither...

I don't think even Skylar or Billy Thorpe could hang with them in mouse-banking ;)

- Gh::LOL::st




Yeah Billy, maybe we can do some partner's prop-betting here 🤑

This could be my opportunity to get some of my buddy Kyb's cash...o_O...

Any of you mouse-bankers have action with me...you can shoot any of the banks, and I'll play a safety, and we'll take turns playing out games :)

And btw, in my nsho, the best choice here is pretty much a pick-it between Frank's safety, and Crabman's safety (which didn't get mentioned as it should have, except by Larry - good on you Larry)...

...and there are two reasons why John's safety of shooting the 7 forward is superior to the safety of coming off the 7 into/towards the 14:

#1. With distance and having to shoot off the rail making speed control and accuracy problematic, there's more margin for error, and much less chance of selling out a shot with John's shot/John's cueball trajectory...as opposed to the proposed shot of having the cueball head into the 14, or towards the 14ball area.

#2. John's shot leaves the 10 and 7 both clear for banking straight back, or cutting in...while conversely, in cutting the 7 to the left, you may very well harm your position by having the 7 end up, doubling up the 10/blocking each others banking lanes.

- Ghost
My money? Lol. You have to shoot here. The trick to the shot is 1 tip of left to hold the object ball on a good line. I will shoot it and let ya know how much money to send me.
 

Kybanks

Verified Member
Joined
Jul 27, 2015
Messages
833
Ghost you owe me $50 for making me get off the couch. Lol. Now I shot the shot 10 times. First 4 weren't great cause the 1 tip of left is no good. The next 6 with straight top, made it twice, also made the ball on the long rail and hung the cross corner. The other 4 times the opponent could lose if he shot missed. The ball was by the pocket.
 

One Pocket Ghost

Verified Member
Joined
May 25, 2004
Messages
9,536
My money? 😥 You have to shoot here. The trick to the shot is 1 tip of left to hold the object ball on a good line. I will shoot it and let ya know how much money I owe you.
Hmmm...let's see now...ghost, Dr. Bill & Frank say you don't shoot now...combined, that's 160 years of One Pocket experience/knowledge < nuff said

brother Kyb...


; ; ; ; ;   IMG_3359-1.jpg
 

gulfportdoc

Verified Member
Joined
Jun 25, 2004
Messages
10,296
...
[to OneRock:] I like your safety playing the carom off the 7ball into the 14ball. Either that option or Frank The Barber's option with crossing the 10ball to get away from the position and deal with it from square one.
Dr. Bill
I know how busy and rushed for time you are these days, so you may not have read the thread from the beginning. But the 7-14 was ole Doc's shot in post #3...😄
 

OneRock

Verified Member
Joined
May 25, 2015
Messages
1,356
I know how busy and rushed for time you are these days, so you may not have read the thread from the beginning. But the 7-14 was ole Doc's shot in post #3...😄
I personally never read a thread until I come up with an unbiased solution first. But yes, you proposed it first. Good job!
 
Last edited:

wincardona

Verified Member
Joined
Aug 7, 2007
Messages
7,556
first off giving him next shot with three balls up table puts you in that 7 to 1 dog range.
where if you bank a ball to your hole if you make it you fall into the 2 to 1 range with the next shot or better.
and if you hang it he likely wont shoot a long shot for his hole anyway so you dont really sell out and if he does so what, as if he misses you can become the favorite or close to it.
I believe your odds are incorrect beatle. 7/1 is clearly too high. Between two fairly decent players, the odds to win a game with Player A needing all the balls are 4/1 at most. Now if you are playing ball for ball maybe the odds are 7/1 but it really rarely comes down to where player A wins the game by pocketing one ball at a time.

Let's take the straight back bank on the 7ball as an example. The cue ball is frozen on the foot rail creating problems with both the accuracy of the hit and also the ability to control the speed of the cue ball will be compromised as well, agree? How often (in terms of %) do you think the shooter will leave a very makeable return shot on the 14ball? I say at least 50% of the time.
I know how busy and rushed for time you are these days, so you may not have read the thread from the beginning. But the 7-14 was ole Doc's shot in post #3...😄
Sorry, doc you did mention it first I apologize. Anyways, good eye Peter.

Dr. Bill
 

Kybanks

Verified Member
Joined
Jul 27, 2015
Messages
833
If the execution of the closest ball ( 7 ball ) is troublesome? How can the other shots not be in the same classification? If you are an underdog with any shot, why not shoot the 1 that can win you the game? And yes the 7 can win the game.
 

catkins

Verified Member
Joined
Nov 1, 2016
Messages
1,285
the carom into the 14, if you hit it too thin or thick you leave a straight in shot on the 14
THis comes down to execution I dont think it is to tough to judge the hit to hit the 14 and since I am really just playing bunt speed to hopefully lay on the 14 I like my odds
 
Last edited:

beatle

Verified Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2009
Messages
2,784
its is 7 to 1, when a ball at a time is made that is right. and general around 4 to 1 when two good players have the standard situation. but when all 3 balls are up table and the player that needs one is now the shooter the odds increase to i believe around the 7 to 1, i figure.

and is less if the person shoots the bank but by how much i dont know, as it depends on the shooters ability to put the long bank in or near his jaws and not leave too easy a shot.

most players dont play well enough to run all three balls from an up table position. very good players can though.
so their odds of winning go up dramatically. where the average players odds of winning go way down approaching the 7 to 1 figure. and as the odds change every time the other player's turn comes.

this is really a math question and not a shot choice question. few look at it that way but it is definitely a math decision. but you do have to have a good gauge on your ability to make the different shots, and to put a % on the different outcomes.

but anytime you need all the balls on the table and he needs just one you need a great reason to not shoot a shot which can win you the game or make it close to an even one. it is one of the times you can shoot a shot you are a big dog to make and it may be the correct choice.
 

Dennis "Whitey" Young

Verified Member
Joined
Jul 8, 2017
Messages
2,286
In shooting the 7 and holding the cb you then have to jack up, and this means any unwanted right or left english will really take the cb off line. That is why 1 tip of left which in this case is inside reverse english would add a huge amount of difficulty.
Most likely scenario is that you miss the shot and the ob comes out for the cross side bank winner.
If you are going to bank this 7 using center ball is a must.

If I was banking, I would one rail bank the 14 instead for the cb would get on to the 10 and that would be at pretty much pocket speed. This would leave a fairly tough return shot.
If I did make it then I have a chance to get all 3.
Whitey
 
Last edited:

wincardona

Verified Member
Joined
Aug 7, 2007
Messages
7,556
its is 7 to 1, when a ball at a time is made that is right. and general around 4 to 1 when two good players have the standard situation. but when all 3 balls are up table and the player that needs one is now the shooter the odds increase to i believe around the 7 to 1, i figure.

and is less if the person shoots the bank but by how much i dont know, as it depends on the shooters ability to put the long bank in or near his jaws and not leave too easy a shot.

most players dont play well enough to run all three balls from an up table position. very good players can though.
so their odds of winning go up dramatically. where the average players odds of winning go way down approaching the 7 to 1 figure. and as the odds change every time the other player's turn comes.

this is really a math question and not a shot choice question. few look at it that way but it is definitely a math decision. but you do have to have a good gauge on your ability to make the different shots, and to put a % on the different outcomes.

but anytime you need all the balls on the table and he needs just one you need a great reason to not shoot a shot which can win you the game or make it close to an even one. it is one of the times you can shoot a shot you are a big dog to make and it may be the correct choice.

beatle, I'm sure you know, or at least I give you the credit of knowing that regardless of where the balls are positioned and what the caliber of players are, the odds can never be 7/1. If a player can run two balls and is capable of playing position, than the odds cannot be 7/1. I can't begin to tell you how many times I needed three balls to my opponents one ball with all balls out of play, and I won the game by running out. Just because balls are out of play, it doesn't mean that they will remain out of play. With that understood, then playing a safety here would lend to a never give up attitude which would send a message to your opponent to play cautiously, which would allow you to move balls into position and reduce the win%.

There's a lot to be said for players that have patience and a good understanding of how psychologically players handle situations like this one when their opponent starts to play wisely and chopping at the lead. Another plus with playing wisely and not throwing your money in the air is after you win a game like this one, your opponent has much more respect for your ability and heart, and quite often, it will show in their play. Nick Varner would be a perfect example of the type of player that never believes he's out of a game regardless of the score and where the balls are positioned. THINK WEDGE GAME.

If the bank guarantees you a win, then, by all means, shoot it, but in this situation, it doesn't apply.

Dr. Bill
 

beatle

Verified Member
Joined
Jun 21, 2009
Messages
2,784
i did qualify my 7 to 1 figure. and added it was much higher than the 4 to 1 when the person shooting now only needed the 1. the 7 to 1 is for when each ball is pocketed one by one. even then the first to shoot has an increased chance of winning just because he is first to shoot.

but my showing the odds was to present it as a math decision which i think i did well. and show the detriment of automatically shooting a safe when you have a shot available and are a big dog to win as it stands.

its not quite but kind of analogous to 9 ball, where two players play equally. so its 1 to 1 odds or 50% for each to win the next game. however the person with the first shot, namely the break no longer makes it a 50/ 50 proposition. it climbs quickly to say 70/30 or maybe even more depending on table, players etc. and if he misses on the break the next player to shoot becomes the large favorite.

i will let it go at that. but would like to add that i was probably the first to use stochastic processes to add to the decision making of gambling thoughts in a manner to beat games of uncertainty of accurate decision making
 
Last edited:

One Pocket Ghost

Verified Member
Joined
May 25, 2004
Messages
9,536
I'm not going to panic here and try one of those two banks available. Both have loss written over them. I'm banking the ten ball over to his side of the table and taking the cue ball one rail over to my side of the table by my pocket trying not to leave him a three rail bank on it. Hit it fairly well and you take away the one rail bank on the seven.
Well, John and Frank were in agreement here - they both liked the same shot...John hit it as he meant to and he came out ok - he almost left a 3-railer, but he didn't...here's how it turned out >>>

010.JPG
 

lll

Verified Member
Joined
Mar 19, 2007
Messages
16,125
i will let it go at that. but would like to add that i was probably the first to use stochastic processes to add to the decision making of gambling thoughts in a manner to beat games of uncertainty of accurate decision making
i had to look that up........:mad:
i still like how you think beatle..... 👍
 

Billy Jackets

Verified Member
Joined
Sep 3, 2011
Messages
1,800
i will let it go at that. but would like to add that i was probably the first to use stochastic processes to add to the decision making of gambling thoughts in a manner to beat games of uncertainty of accurate decision making
i had to look that up........:mad:

i still like how you think beatle..... 👍
Yeah and Earl invented the jump shot! Except it's in a 200 year old billiard book with some other guys name attached to it.
There are ancient Egyptian heiroglyphs describing how to figure odds at cobra roulette, Cleopatra was a 5/3 favorite to not get bitten , she knew the snake had just been fed , alas and alack ,it was that time of the month for the snake {Cleo being a woman denied vehemently that was a factor} }and so the true odds should have been 1000 to 1 does!
I worked in a pool room in 1967 and the owner could jump draw the length of the table over a full ball with his playing cue. He had an awesome stroke but was in love with watching the cue ball dance more than winning. Earl was 6 years old at the time lol
 
Last edited:

TxOnePocket

Well-Known-Member
Joined
Aug 31, 2006
Messages
104
Why bank the 7 and hold up the cb. It does not make sense! So you are playing for 1 when you need 3 with a complete sell out.
You have 3 banks staring you in the face, which one gets you all 3?
If you are going offense then go, otherwise banking the 7, just lost you the game! Whitey
I'm feeling like banking the 7 is very cautious offense, i'm not playing to get out from here i'm thinking just move a ball toward my hole and leave him a difficult game ball decision.

There is a very nice rule of thumb for long banks that applies to this diagram. If an object ball is even with the side pockets and you bank it back to your pocket just reaching the pocket, the cue ball will travel forward a very predictable distance. That distance is four diamonds, so the cue ball will be left on the end rail.

It is clear that there must be some magic position for the object ball on a straight long bank for which the speed that barely pockets the object ball leaves the cue ball frozen on the head rail with a rolling cue ball. If the OB is close to the head rail, the CB will bounce off. If the OB is on the foot spot, for example, the CB will not reach the end rail at pocket speed. For many tables, the magic distance is right between the side pockets. If a table has boingy cushions, the location is closer to the head rail. If the cushion is dead, the location is closer to the head rail.

That a long way of saying that the cue ball will end a lot closer to the end rail than shown.
I'm playing the cue ball short of the rail to increase the difficulty of his shot at his hole, if I dont reach my pocket so be it but the if I hit that ball with enough speed to for sure get to the bottom rail my chances of striking it clean and straight go down drastically imo, frozen to the end rail would be optimum position though.

Is the difficulty of banking the 14 ball is being totally overlooked?
 
Top