Artie, here is the answer to what a scratch is worth

Skin

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Artie, I emailed my "probability expert" (statistics prof) so I could get his answer back in writing. Here is what I wrote and what he wrote back:

Skin: If you don't mind, I'd like to ask you the simple question again about the one-pocket pool game to get your math analysis.

The scenario:

An even game between two players of the same skill level is 8-8. That is, each player must make 8 balls in his pocket before the other does to win. If a player fouls in any way, the penalty is he must remove a ball from his pocket and place it on the foot spot at bottom of the table where the balls are racked and he no longer gets credit for making that ball.

So, the foul penalty in an even game at 8-8 is each player is penalized one ball per foul.

Now, suppose the game is handicapped to make it an "even" match between two players of different skill levels. The skilled player (S) must make 18 balls and the unskilled player (U) must make 4 balls to win. What do you figure is the fair penalty for each player on a foul, determined before the game begins? Is it still the same as for an 8-8 game (1S:1U) or should it be adjusted to match the new percentages of balls needed to win (4.5S:1U)? Is there a way to be certain of this mathematically that you know of?


Probability Expert: First of all, I can take away one of the words above (the 8th-to-the-last word in you final question): certainty.

The problem with probability is it AVERAGES to that level; each event might vary widely from the next.

So, if you are counting on the stated odds, you probably will be wrong.

True, you are best to guess the odds (rather than any other number) because they happen more often than other odds you would hold to (because the bell curve event mean is the most often occurring).

How wrong you are depends on the magnitude of the standard deviation (or standard error of the mean); if it is small, you will be CLOSER to certainty.

To answer your question, we need to ask two sub-questions, very similar to the ones we discussed yesterday (or was it Monday?).

1) Does the overall ball handicap between two opponents incorporate the propensity to scratch?

2) Is the likelihood to scratch the same odds as the skill to pocket balls?


You can venture an answer to these questions if you know the demands of the game, what level each player has “mastered” the individually-identified features of excellent play, as well as which of these features are employed with “scratch” strategy and error.

Even if it is incorporated into the overall handicap, scratch handicap is unlikely to be the same as overall handicap between the two players.

Overall handicap is estimated from data of competitive play between these two players or competitors in-common.

This is somewhat of a moving target because there is a “reactionary” aspect of playing a different player, employing slightly different strategy.

Also, some players improve their play faster than others.

Similarly, scratch handicap data can be collected during match play by recording the circumstances, advantages, and disadvantages of scratch strategy and error.

You cannot answer the question until these data are collected - it is a unique feature of play between these two opponents.

I would guess some players tend to scratch more than others. This is the nature of data collecting. However, this does not get us much closer to the answer to your original question (or the answers to the two sub questions).

So, my main answer is: collect data and we will see what we have.

Record under what circumstances, employing what strategies, and making what mistakes a player scratches.

I’d be glad to sift through your first set of data with you!
 

wincardona

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Joined
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Messages
7,278
Skin said:
Artie, I emailed my "probability expert" (statistics prof) so I could get his answer back in writing. Here is what I wrote and what he wrote back:

Skin: If you don't mind, I'd like to ask you the simple question again about the one-pocket pool game to get your math analysis.

The scenario:

An even game between two players of the same skill level is 8-8. That is, each player must make 8 balls in his pocket before the other does to win. If a player fouls in any way, the penalty is he must remove a ball from his pocket and place it on the foot spot at bottom of the table where the balls are racked and he no longer gets credit for making that ball.

So, the foul penalty in an even game at 8-8 is each player is penalized one ball per foul.

Now, suppose the game is handicapped to make it an "even" match between two players of different skill levels. The skilled player (S) must make 18 balls and the unskilled player (U) must make 4 balls to win. What do you figure is the fair penalty for each player on a foul, determined before the game begins? Is it still the same as for an 8-8 game (1S:1U) or should it be adjusted to match the new percentages of balls needed to win (4.5S:1U)? Is there a way to be certain of this mathematically that you know of?


Probability Expert: First of all, I can take away one of the words above (the 8th-to-the-last word in you final question): certainty.

The problem with probability is it AVERAGES to that level; each event might vary widely from the next.

So, if you are counting on the stated odds, you probably will be wrong.

True, you are best to guess the odds (rather than any other number) because they happen more often than other odds you would hold to (because the bell curve event mean is the most often occurring).

How wrong you are depends on the magnitude of the standard deviation (or standard error of the mean); if it is small, you will be CLOSER to certainty.

To answer your question, we need to ask two sub-questions, very similar to the ones we discussed yesterday (or was it Monday?).

1) Does the overall ball handicap between two opponents incorporate the propensity to scratch?

2) Is the likelihood to scratch the same odds as the skill to pocket balls?


You can venture an answer to these questions if you know the demands of the game, what level each player has “mastered” the individually-identified features of excellent play, as well as which of these features are employed with “scratch” strategy and error.

Even if it is incorporated into the overall handicap, scratch handicap is unlikely to be the same as overall handicap between the two players.

Overall handicap is estimated from data of competitive play between these two players or competitors in-common.

This is somewhat of a moving target because there is a “reactionary” aspect of playing a different player, employing slightly different strategy.

Also, some players improve their play faster than others.

Similarly, scratch handicap data can be collected during match play by recording the circumstances, advantages, and disadvantages of scratch strategy and error.

You cannot answer the question until these data are collected - it is a unique feature of play between these two opponents.

I would guess some players tend to scratch more than others. This is the nature of data collecting. However, this does not get us much closer to the answer to your original question (or the answers to the two sub questions).

So, my main answer is: collect data and we will see what we have.

Record under what circumstances, employing what strategies, and making what mistakes a player scratches.

I’d be glad to sift through your first set of data with you!
Skin I have a question and then i'm done with this quandary.

What is the ball value of a free push between two players?:D

Thank you,Thank you, :)

Billy I.
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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Joined
Nov 18, 2005
Messages
4,271
Skin said:
Artie, I emailed my "probability expert" (statistics prof) so I could get his answer back in writing. Here is what I wrote and what he wrote back:

Skin: If you don't mind, I'd like to ask you the simple question again about the one-pocket pool game to get your math analysis.

The scenario:

An even game between two players of the same skill level is 8-8. That is, each player must make 8 balls in his pocket before the other does to win. If a player fouls in any way, the penalty is he must remove a ball from his pocket and place it on the foot spot at bottom of the table where the balls are racked and he no longer gets credit for making that ball.

So, the foul penalty in an even game at 8-8 is each player is penalized one ball per foul.

Now, suppose the game is handicapped to make it an "even" match between two players of different skill levels. The skilled player (S) must make 18 balls and the unskilled player (U) must make 4 balls to win. What do you figure is the fair penalty for each player on a foul, determined before the game begins? Is it still the same as for an 8-8 game (1S:1U) or should it be adjusted to match the new percentages of balls needed to win (4.5S:1U)? Is there a way to be certain of this mathematically that you know of?


Probability Expert: First of all, I can take away one of the words above (the 8th-to-the-last word in you final question): certainty.

The problem with probability is it AVERAGES to that level; each event might vary widely from the next.

So, if you are counting on the stated odds, you probably will be wrong.

True, you are best to guess the odds (rather than any other number) because they happen more often than other odds you would hold to (because the bell curve event mean is the most often occurring).

How wrong you are depends on the magnitude of the standard deviation (or standard error of the mean); if it is small, you will be CLOSER to certainty.

To answer your question, we need to ask two sub-questions, very similar to the ones we discussed yesterday (or was it Monday?).

1) Does the overall ball handicap between two opponents incorporate the propensity to scratch?

2) Is the likelihood to scratch the same odds as the skill to pocket balls?


You can venture an answer to these questions if you know the demands of the game, what level each player has “mastered” the individually-identified features of excellent play, as well as which of these features are employed with “scratch” strategy and error.

Even if it is incorporated into the overall handicap, scratch handicap is unlikely to be the same as overall handicap between the two players.

Overall handicap is estimated from data of competitive play between these two players or competitors in-common.

This is somewhat of a moving target because there is a “reactionary” aspect of playing a different player, employing slightly different strategy.

Also, some players improve their play faster than others.

Similarly, scratch handicap data can be collected during match play by recording the circumstances, advantages, and disadvantages of scratch strategy and error.

You cannot answer the question until these data are collected - it is a unique feature of play between these two opponents.

I would guess some players tend to scratch more than others. This is the nature of data collecting. However, this does not get us much closer to the answer to your original question (or the answers to the two sub questions).

So, my main answer is: collect data and we will see what we have.

Record under what circumstances, employing what strategies, and making what mistakes a player scratches.

I’d be glad to sift through your first set of data with you!
Thanks a lot If I could talk too this person I will give yopu my number or he can send me a private message.
And I think I can answer his qouistions were he can do the math. And come up with the answer. And he sounds censer and egar too help.

Because without the answer. Nothing is accomplisht. And all off this is for nothing. Its like looking for a cure for cancer.

If people say ther is no cure and give up then. Look at all the people who will loose from it. Just because thier isnt a answer yet.

One day thier will be a answer. They just havant figured it out yet. But they will. I would love to talk too this person.

And I will give him the information that he needs to figure out the problem. Thanks again. For you help.
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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Messages
4,271
wincardona said:
Skin I have a question and then i'm done with this quandary.

What is the ball value of a free push between two players?:D

Thank you,Thank you, :)

Billy I.
Were not just looking for a free push value. We are looking for what a sctatch is worth if a player is getting spotted 18 to 4.

Are the rules fair and correct???? This is not about looking what a push foul is worth.

This is about what should a scratch cost a player getting 18 to 4 . Nothing too do with a push. Thank you.
 

wincardona

Verified Member
Joined
Aug 7, 2007
Messages
7,278
Skin said:
Artie, I emailed my "probability expert" (statistics prof) so I could get his answer back in writing. Here is what I wrote and what he wrote back:

Skin: If you don't mind, I'd like to ask you the simple question again about the one-pocket pool game to get your math analysis.

The scenario:

An even game between two players of the same skill level is 8-8. That is, each player must make 8 balls in his pocket before the other does to win. If a player fouls in any way, the penalty is he must remove a ball from his pocket and place it on the foot spot at bottom of the table where the balls are racked and he no longer gets credit for making that ball.

So, the foul penalty in an even game at 8-8 is each player is penalized one ball per foul.

Now, suppose the game is handicapped to make it an "even" match between two players of different skill levels. The skilled player (S) must make 18 balls and the unskilled player (U) must make 4 balls to win. What do you figure is the fair penalty for each player on a foul, determined before the game begins? Is it still the same as for an 8-8 game (1S:1U) or should it be adjusted to match the new percentages of balls needed to win (4.5S:1U)? Is there a way to be certain of this mathematically that you know of?


Probability Expert: First of all, I can take away one of the words above (the 8th-to-the-last word in you final question): certainty.

The problem with probability is it AVERAGES to that level; each event might vary widely from the next.

So, if you are counting on the stated odds, you probably will be wrong.

True, you are best to guess the odds (rather than any other number) because they happen more often than other odds you would hold to (because the bell curve event mean is the most often occurring).

How wrong you are depends on the magnitude of the standard deviation (or standard error of the mean); if it is small, you will be CLOSER to certainty.

To answer your question, we need to ask two sub-questions, very similar to the ones we discussed yesterday (or was it Monday?).

1) Does the overall ball handicap between two opponents incorporate the propensity to scratch?

2) Is the likelihood to scratch the same odds as the skill to pocket balls?


You can venture an answer to these questions if you know the demands of the game, what level each player has “mastered” the individually-identified features of excellent play, as well as which of these features are employed with “scratch” strategy and error.

Even if it is incorporated into the overall handicap, scratch handicap is unlikely to be the same as overall handicap between the two players.

Overall handicap is estimated from data of competitive play between these two players or competitors in-common.

This is somewhat of a moving target because there is a “reactionary” aspect of playing a different player, employing slightly different strategy.

Also, some players improve their play faster than others.

Similarly, scratch handicap data can be collected during match play by recording the circumstances, advantages, and disadvantages of scratch strategy and error.

You cannot answer the question until these data are collected - it is a unique feature of play between these two opponents.

I would guess some players tend to scratch more than others. This is the nature of data collecting. However, this does not get us much closer to the answer to your original question (or the answers to the two sub questions).

So, my main answer is: collect data and we will see what we have.

Record under what circumstances, employing what strategies, and making what mistakes a player scratches.

I’d be glad to sift through your first set of data with you!
Skin, On the what is a free scratch worth thread I made 2 post taht I would like you to present to your probability expert, if you will. post# 181 and post# 192. Thanks dinners onme at the DCC.

Billy I.
 

CaliRed

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wincardona said:
Skin, On the what is a free scratch worth thread I made 2 post taht I would like you to present to your probability expert, if you will. post# 181 and post# 192. Thanks dinners onme at the DCC.

Billy I.
And Skin, if you don't make it to the Derby, you can give me a "intentional push" of your free dinner to me:D hmmm... wonder what that's worth?:)
 

androd

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CaliRed said:
And Skin, if you don't make it to the Derby, you can give me a "intentional push" of your free dinner to me:D hmmm... wonder what that's worth?:)
A bird in the hand is worth to in the bush.:)
A push in the bush is worth two in the hand. :D
 

Skin

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wincardona said:
Skin, On the what is a free scratch worth thread I made 2 post taht I would like you to present to your probability expert, if you will. post# 181 and post# 192. Thanks dinners onme at the DCC.

Billy I.
Billy, with respect, I believe my man is pretty much tapped out on this subject. But, from what he wrote and the conversation we had earlier, I can tell you he would agree with the points you made in those posts. He understands the problem and sees it as you do.

I'm not going to the DCC, but if I were, dinner with you would be an honor. Thanks for the kind offer. However, CaliRed is going to be doing a real service to all of us back here at the site with his reporting and videos/streams. He may not have enough money left to feed himself once he pays Dick's bar tabs and might be needing a free meal at some point. :D

Skin
 
Last edited:

Artie Bodendorfer

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Messages
4,271
Skin said:
Billy, with respect, I believe my man is pretty much tapped out on this subject. But, from what he wrote and the conversation we had earlier, I can tell you he would agree with the points you made in those posts. I understands the problem and sees it as you do.

I'm not going to the DCC, but if I were, dinner with you would be an honor. Thanks for the kind offer. However, CaliRed is going to be doing a real service to all of us back here at the site with his reporting and videos/streams. He may not have enough money left to feed himself once he pays Dick's bar tabs and might be needing a free meal at some point. :D

Skin
Am I going to get too talk to the Probability expert. That is what I asked. Let me no whats up. Billy can ask him anything he wants. He only keeps talking about one thing .What a free oush is worth.

I asked a bunch off qouistions related too. What opened up yoo be a free fout. Changed to a free oush. Its all the same a foul a push a scratch.

THey all cost you a ball if you dont get a free foul. And I am sure that even though all off these fouls push shot or a scratch.

All cost you a ball. A pocket scratch is better for the other player and worth more in reality. Because he gets cue ball in hand behind the line. And can move the cue ball anywere he wants too.

But everybody thinks it has the same value. When it doesnt. I am sure you would rather get cue ball in hand then you shooting behind a ball and cant do anything but take a foul back.

So you see even though the price off the scratch is the same. Thier is a big difference having cue ball in handbehind the line. Or shooting from behind a ball being locket up.

But people realy dont think about it. So thats why I brought iy up.

I am going to stress this Qouistion. Because when I ask a Qouistion. HOWE Come THEY DONT SHOW THE COURTASY TOO ANSWER THEM.

Is it because if they aswer them people will see what it realy is. And they trap themselves. So is that why they dont answer they qouistions. THe answer everything else.

And they have a answer for everything but what I ask. Like a frre push. Isnt worth anything. THen what is a push worth that isnt free?

And I have asked a bunch off qouistions and nobody has answered them. Why.Why.

THe have the same answer for themselves that no body can get a price what its worth is. But I no they can get the percentages what a push shot is worth.

But they keep saying its not worth nothing. If its worth nothing Why would he even want it. If its worth nothing. THat doesnt add up.

But I would like for some one to give me a number or a private message were I can talk too the probability expert. To figure out the correct percentage. And If Skin doesnt want too do it. I will respect his wishes.

But that does not stop me from getting the answer from another probability expert. I am after the truth. And the correct percentages off what it is worth.

And if someone else knowes someone that can figure out the correct percentages.

I think everyone would appriciate it and be thankfull. But giving up never soulved a answer. Weather it was in a game or whanting to no the answer too a qouistion.

Its time for people too step up and find out the answer. And not avoid the qouistion. And say it cant be done. I will waite for you reply Skin. Or whoever knowes someone who can do the probability Problem. THank you .
 

Skin

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Artie Bodendorfer said:
Am I going to get too talk to the Probability expert. That is what I asked. Let me no whats up. Billy can ask him anything he wants. He only keeps talking about one thing .What a free oush is worth.

I asked a bunch off qouistions related too. What opened up yoo be a free fout. Changed to a free oush. Its all the same a foul a push a scratch.

THey all cost you a ball if you dont get a free foul. And I am sure that even though all off these fouls push shot or a scratch.

All cost you a ball. A pocket scratch is better for the other player and worth more in reality. Because he gets cue ball in hand behind the line. And can move the cue ball anywere he wants too.

But everybody thinks it has the same value. When it doesnt. I am sure you would rather get cue ball in hand then you shooting behind a ball and cant do anything but take a foul back.

So you see even though the price off the scratch is the same. Thier is a big difference having cue ball in handbehind the line. Or shooting from behind a ball being locket up.

But people realy dont think about it. So thats why I brought iy up.

I am going to stress this Qouistion. Because when I ask a Qouistion. HOWE Come THEY DONT SHOW THE COURTASY TOO ANSWER THEM.

Is it because if they aswer them people will see what it realy is. And they trap themselves. So is that why they dont answer they qouistions. THe answer everything else.

And they have a answer for everything but what I ask. Like a frre push. Isnt worth anything. THen what is a push worth that isnt free?

And I have asked a bunch off qouistions and nobody has answered them. Why.Why.

THe have the same answer for themselves that no body can get a price what its worth is. But I no they can get the percentages what a push shot is worth.

But they keep saying its not worth nothing. If its worth nothing Why would he even want it. If its worth nothing. THat doesnt add up.

But I would like for some one to give me a number or a private message were I can talk too the probability expert. To figure out the correct percentage. And If Skin doesnt want too do it. I will respect his wishes.

But that does not stop me from getting the answer from another probability expert. I am after the truth. And the correct percentages off what it is worth.

And if someone else knowes someone that can figure out the correct percentages.

I think everyone would appriciate it and be thankfull. But giving up never soulved a answer. Weather it was in a game or whanting to no the answer too a qouistion.

Its time for people too step up and find out the answer. And not avoid the qouistion. And say it cant be done. I will waite for you reply Skin. Or whoever knowes someone who can do the probability Problem. THank you .
Artie, like I told Billy, I think my "probability expert" has been asked enough about this. I'm not going to keep imposing on him. It was generous of him to spend so much time answering the question you wanted me to ask him in a long well-thought out email. And I posted that answer for you. I'm sorry, I cannot ask for anymore of this man's time. He is a very busy professional with work of his own to do.

Skin
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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Skin said:
Artie, like I told Billy, I think my "probability expert" has been asked enough about this. I'm not going to keep imposing on him. It was generous of him to spend so much time answering the question you wanted me to ask him in a long well-thought out email. And I posted that answer for you. I'm sorry, I cannot ask for anymore of this man's time. He is a very busy professional with work of his own to do.

Skin
THanks for your help and what you have done. I appriciate it. Because I no you realy didnt have too do anything at all.

But I was just asking. Because I was looking for a answer. And maybe. I should have ask you iin the beginning if I could talk too him.

But everything you did is appriciated. Thanks for your part in sharing trying too get the answer. I learned if you dont get the answer step left. And move on tell you get what you are looking for.
 

CaliRed

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Skin said:
Artie, like I told Billy, I think my "probability expert" has been asked enough about this. I'm not going to keep imposing on him. It was generous of him to spend so much time answering the question you wanted me to ask him in a long well-thought out email. And I posted that answer for you. I'm sorry, I cannot ask for anymore of this man's time. He is a very busy professional with work of his own to do.

Skin
I had consulted my "probability expert" yesterday, and he said that there was a 98.5640083% probability that you would make this post:D
 

Skin

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CaliRed said:
I had consulted my "probability expert" yesterday, and he said that there was a 98.5640083% probability that you would make this post:D
He was off by -1.4359917%. Close enough to make a game on it, though. ;)

Skin
 

Artie Bodendorfer

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wincardona said:
Skin, On the what is a free scratch worth thread I made 2 post taht I would like you to present to your probability expert, if you will. post# 181 and post# 192. Thanks dinners onme at the DCC.

Billy I.
The qouistion I asked is at the start off the game not during the game not after the game starts. At the beging off the game.

weather he uses the free push or not. has nothing too do with the price I am asking at the start off the game.

He might use a push 3 times or zero times. that. will happen during the game. And we do not no if he will use the push at all.

What if he does not have a free push. What does it cost him. And what is it worth?

Her is what we no and this is how he needs too arive at the correct percentages.

The game is 18 to 4 Breack apeace. Forget the free push. Because it only seems too complicate the answer.

Dave is getting 4 and a half balls to everyone off his balls.

They both have too pay a ball on any foul or push or scratch. What should Gabe have too pay in balls according too the spot? What is the correct percentages according too the 18 to 4 spot?

Do you understand the qouistion? And if he does the probabilities on these numbers . He will come up with a answer.

And if he does not no that the rules are a ball for a ball. It would even be better. Let him figure it his way. With probabilities and percentages.

Because he would not think about what the rule is already. And come up with the percentages off the spot and game.

Do you umderstand the Qouistion?
 
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