A wwyd from a few years ago

wincardona

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Billy, you're not paying attention :frus playing safe off the 4ball is not an option - did you not see the edit I made after I reviewed the original thread ----->
My bad, this new scenario certainly changes the complexion of the situation and imo their are several reasons why shooting the 3ball is worth consideration, dependent on the skills of the shooter.

This new situation can possibly be figured out by using math, not to give you an exact percentage (because of the uncertainties) but to offer you a reasonable conclusion on how things may come down.

The 5ball is in a position that only favors the shooter and is actually a detriment to the opposing player, if it could speak it would say to shoot the 3ball I got your back. The 1ball favors the shooter as well, however, it can be made by the non shooter two in the corner but it still favors the shooter, and for that reason it shouldn't be considered a deterrent for the shooter not to shoot the 3ball.

The position of both the 5ball and 1ball are a huge factor in deciding whether to shoot or pass with the 3ball, because of the position of both balls this situation can be more easily judged by using math.

With this new perspective now the shooter should reasonably conclude that by opting to shoot the 3ball if missed he is only losing one extra ball, and that's providing that the missed 3ball ends up in a position that the incoming player can score it from. The 3ball could be struck well enough to be hung if missed, and that's also a large factor in the decision of shooting or not.

Lets assume that the shooter is even money to pocket the 3ball (50%-50%)
If the same situation shows itself 10 times the shooter will win 5 games out of the 10 games that are played (only for the battle of the 3 and 4ball) because that's the rate that the 3ball will be pocketed ..5 out of 10 games. The other 5 games the incoming player figures to score both the 4ball and the 3ball 4 out of those 5 games. (reasonable conclusion) and the one time he doesn't shooter A will win that game for a total of 6 wins in 10 games (only for the battle of the 3 and 4ball)

The above explanation is a fair way to look at the 3ball and 4ball situation, in terms of only pocketing the 3 and 4ball. The 1ball and 5baLL are a non issue because of their position and shouldn't be factored into the equation with deciding to shoot the 3ball. So the above paragraph that shows the shooter that shoots the 3ball will win 6 out of 10 games (only for the battle of the 3 and 4ball) is a reasonable conclusion, but not exact, but reasonable enough to make a some what informed decision.

There are a lot of considerations to think about when shot choices are being processed, I mentioned a few of them in the paragraphs above. Get what you can get from my list of things to consider..though there are many more that haven't been mentioned, but what was offered is food for thought and will help you make decisions in crucial times..hopefully.:D

Dr. Bill
 
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onepockethacker

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If the 4 ball is hanging then it is a different scenario. If I am playing a monster player Im shooting the 3 ball for 2 reasons. The first is the value of ball position is all relative to who you are playing against. So if Im playing a monster the strength of the balls isn't as valuable compared to if Im playing an egg. Second and more importantly if you turn down game winning shots on the 3 ball with the 4 ball HANGING against a monster it becomes bombs away for them. You will spend the rest of the game on defense... Against someone of equal ability or weaker Im giving them the 4 ball.
 

Scrzbill

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Is this a tournament or a bet? A tournament I take out the four. Betting, I'm shooting the three. fire, fire, fire away.
 

Frank Almanza

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Is this a tournament or a bet? A tournament I take out the four. Betting, I'm shooting the three. fire, fire, fire away.
The Ghost says that the four ball is hanging and cannot be taken out. Are you still firing away?
 

One Pocket Ghost

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Here's a few more, very opinionated posts :heh :D from the original thread ----->


... if Billy Boy didn't shoot at the 3 ball for all the money, I would turn violent.
Dont worry tho, he does know better. I would like him to provide me a list, especially with his name on it, of all the players that like to see their opponent rolling at the session ball when you need 4 and two are completely out of play.

Beard

If he doesn't back off on this point, I am going to tell Artie what he said.

IMHO, anybody who doesnt shoot the 3 to try and win it right then, should commit suicide, pray for reincarnation, and hope to come back as a pool player with a pair. :sorry

Beard


The last 3 posts, have convinced me, what I already knew for sure...Even in my current condition [sick], I am going for the 3, and betting major $$$, that even knowing I will probably miss it at least 50%...I will still win the game...I would certainly prefer that, to giving my oppo a ball and the first move, whatever he shot next..:cool:
PS, I like bringing back up Freddy's posts - especially where he's arguing with Billy :heh it kinda makes it like he's still here with us.
 
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Miller

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posts #5 and #12 are unequivocally the correct shot. regardless of any ghostly addendums.....
:eek::heh
 

Jeff sparks

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Jeff...I've got to give you, Billy, and whoever else said this, the flip side of that thinking - contrarily, I've been "bit in the butt" many times by playing it safe...

A lot of times if you don't take that shot to win when you have it - you don't ever get it again...I've seen that happen a million times..it's like the One Pocket GODS will punish you for not stepping up to the plate, and being too nitty in your shot choice.

- Ghost
Whoa there pardnah,

You reposition the 4 ball, ( post # 31 ) and now it's an unremovable hanger, then you call me out on a previous post, ( post # 27 ) Sorry, but ja just don't get ta do dat, tain't zactly fair!!

If the 4 is now his, ( why even shoot it in) he can have it, but only if I miss the 3 ball, which I will now be taking a swing at. Only question I would ask, what speed do I want to use on the 3 ball?

Prolly just roll it at pocket speed, got the full pocket to win the game + a little extra room to at least jar it and not sell out a bank.

I'm a nitty poker player, or overly careful I like to say, but not shooting the 3 here, under the 4 balls "NEW PLACEMENT" would border on carrying a single light bulb from room to room.
 
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Miller

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Whoa there pardnah,

You reposition the 4 ball, ( post # 31 ) and now it's an unremovable hanger, then you call me out on a previous post, ( post # 27 ) Sorry, but ja just don't get ta do dat, tain't zactly fair!!

If the 4 is now his, ( why even shoot it in) he can have it, but only if I miss the 3 ball, which I will now be taking a swing at. Only question I would ask, what speed do I want to use on the 3 ball?

Prolly just roll it at pocket speed, got the full pocket to win the game + a little extra room to at least jar it and not sell out a bank.

I'm a nitty poker player, or overly careful I like to say, but not shooting the 3 here, under the 4 balls "NEW PLACEMENT" would border on carrying a single light bulb from room to room.
good man tall jeff. like the way you think....
:heh
 

One Pocket Ghost

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Whoa there pardnah,
Whoa there pardnah..calm down..it's all good - I accept your changing your mind...:heh...:D...<a href='http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/skype-emoticons.html' title='Skype Emoticons'><img src='http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smileys/free-indifferent-smileys-851.gif' alt='Skype Emoticons' border='0'></a>
 

Jeff sparks

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Whoa there pardnah..calm down..it's all good - I accept your changing your mind...:heh...:D...<a href='http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/skype-emoticons.html' title='Skype Emoticons'><img src='http://www.easyfreesmileys.com/smileys/free-indifferent-smileys-851.gif' alt='Skype Emoticons' border='0'></a>
Natch,

I accept that you completely changed the whole WWYD with the new placement of the 4 ball, what I held objectionable was the fact that some of us were scored according to the old 4 ball placement. Wasn't kosher IMO that's all.

I'm cool with it though, JUST DON'T LET IT HAPPEN AGAIN!!! Grrrr!
 

#Cruncher

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I would probably go for the win if my opponent was one of our resident Tier 1 players, since it might be my best shot. Otherwise, conceding the ball and leaving whitey hanging in the opponent's pocket seems pretty strong with how the balls are laying.

I'm wondering what some of our experts would do from that situation. Seems hard to come up with a good return shot....:confused:
 

One Pocket Ghost

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I would probably go for the win if my opponent was one of our resident Tier 1 players, since it might be my best shot. Otherwise, conceding the ball and leaving whitey hanging in the opponent's pocket seems pretty strong with how the balls are laying.

I'm wondering what some of our experts would do from that situation. Seems hard to come up with a good return shot....:confused:
Cruncher...:sorry you've been hearing crickets all afternoon...I'll answer you...

If I was left where the 4ball is after my opponent pocketed it for me..I believe I would bank the 3ball across over to my long rail, and bring whitey back down to the foot rail near my opponent's pocket.

- Ghost
 

Bobbytworails

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No one is shooting the 3 if they are betting their own, and certainly not for a body part. Even if the 5 is not frozen (Looks like it is) and you kick the 4 out and he banks the 3, he still has to two rail the 5 if he gets perfect and back to the same rail and if that gem goes he still then has a two railer on the 1. Kick the 4 and let him go!!! Collect the money and play a new set one up:) Bet More?, up to you...
 

Bobbytworails

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P.S. If you are getting staked and you shoot the three I certainly hope your wearing your new plaid bullet proof vest. LMAO
 

One Pocket Ghost

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No one is shooting the 3 if they are betting their own, and certainly not for a body part. Even if the 5 is not frozen (Looks like it is) and you kick the 4 out and he banks the 3, he still has to two rail the 5 if he gets perfect and back to the same rail and if that gem goes he still then has a two railer on the 1. Kick the 4 and let him go!!! Collect the money and play a new set one up:) Bet More?, up to you...
Bobby...there was an edit/correction to the original post/picture = the 4 is inside the jaws of the pocket, and you have to give him the 4ball if you don't want to shoot the 3.

- Ghost
 

Wayne

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Based on the situation as described and the location of the cueball so close to the pocket I would give my opponent the ball in his pocket.

Too much pressure rolling a ball in with the cueball where it is at this key point in a match. If I lost from there giving up the ball and then my opponent making the other three (before I could make my one) I probably wouldn't feel too bad.

However, if I went for the win and screwed up and lost I would be kicking myself.

If I shot as good as all the players who could roll that ball in 50% of the time with the cueball in that position, in that kind of pressure situation, then I would probably go for it.

Wayne
 

One Pocket Ghost

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So anyway...here was my answer from the original thread, as to what I did when I was in this tournament game situation ----->


I thought this would be an interesting game situation to discuss, and it turns out that we ended up close to 50/50 in the posters choices here...

And let me say for those that were taking this into consideration..that the cloth was dry, and pretty new, increasing the odds of making the 3...

As for me, when I was in the tournament with this choice....well, I might be a mover, as Freddy is, but also like Freddy says, 'when my name is called', I'm more than happy to pull the trigger at my hole - and not just when it's: 'gotta go' time - but also when it's just: 'a good time to go', as imo, it was here...

That said, I thought about the choice for a minute, and then decided to shoot the 3.....Billy said confidence in making the shot would likely be the prime factor in a player's choosing to shoot he 3 - that's likely true for most, but not primarily that for me - not being a super-straight shooter, for me, it was my confidence in my speed control that was the prime factor in my deciding to shoot it - judging pocket speed being a very strong part of my game...

I'm thinking %-wise, that I'm probably somewhere around 33% to make the shot - but I'm about 90% for my pocket speed to be accurate enough to leave the 10 close enough to the pocket to not leave him any shot at it...

Well, the result stayed with the likely odds for me: I didn't make the shot, but I did leave it close enough to the pocket to not leave him any bank shot - although not deep enough in the pocket jaws to where he couldn't take it out....so he made the 4, and then he next had to take out the 10 from my pocket.

- Ghost
 
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