N. Varner vs. E. Reyes 1999 D.C.C.

[Cowboy Dennis]

Considering that I just had the luxury of pocketing six balls I now have a more comfortable feel at the table.

Tom

Tom,

In a court of law they would object to this line of reasoning because you are "assuming facts not in evidence". Maybe Varner just shot the six toughest shots of his life to get to this one, you don't know and can't assume he "has a comfortable feel at the table". Since you are ascribing qualities to the shooter here based on thinking he's "feeling comfortable" let's look at his previous shot.

Let me go backwards one shot and show you how Varner got to this position. He had this shot on the 15 ball and went higher uptable than he liked. He did NOT like the the shot on the 12 ball from here but shot it anyway.

Let me reiterate; Varner did not play for the cueball to be this far uptable and did not like it when it went there. He most definitely was not "comfortable" with the shot because he had just ran six balls.



Varner did not like his position on the 12 ball one bit:




Dennis

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

Anyone who just ran 6 balls and wouldn't shoot this simple shot, should go home and get under the bed or their wife's dress.
Rod.

Give me a choice between this shot (with a 5-2 lead) and getting under my wife's dress (If I had a wife) and I'm on my knees like a rat eating cheese.

RBL

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

I don't think that is a cinch stroke he hit that ball with, and I don't like it. At least it wasn't the way I'd cinch that ball. Imagine if it were a 9 ball playing 9 ball, how would he shoot it. Whatever the answer to that is, you must shoot it that way.

Do yo shoot a 9 ball like that? I think different players cinch balls differently, but this is one i'm hitting with low left if I am cinching it. Rolling this my make % goes down enough to not consider it, esp when I have to worry about the point, or even going in the side.

TD,

To "cinch" a 9 ball when playing 9-Ball is a completely different stroke than when playing one-pocket. When you make the 9 ball you win the game and only have to avoid scratching. This is not Varner's game ball, if he makes it it gives him 7 balls and he owes one, giving him 6 balls. You either make the 12 here and play shapes or make the 7 in Efren's pocket. One or the other.

Dennis

 

[Tom Wirth]

Tom,

In a court of law they would object to this line of reasoning because you are "assuming facts not in evidence". Maybe Varner just shot the six toughest shots of his life to get to this one, you don't know and can't assume he "has a comfortable feel at the table". Since you are ascribing qualities to the shooter here based on thinking he's "feeling comfortable" let's look at his previous shot.

Let me go backwards one shot and show you how Varner got to this position. He had this shot on the 15 ball and went higher uptable than he liked. He did NOT like the the shot on the 12 ball from here but shot it anyway.

Let me reiterate; Varner did not play for the cueball to be this far uptable and did not like it when it went there. He most definitely was not "comfortable" with the shot because he had just ran six balls.

View attachment 8256

Varner did not like his position on the 12 ball one bit:

View attachment 8257


Dennis

Dennis, Let me put it this way. Having run six consecutive balls has given Nick a better feelfor the table than had he been trading safety for safety for the past several shots. This shot on the fifteen ball obviously got away from him a bit and he ended up table further than he would have liked but his confidence is displayed by the fact that he still took the shot on the twelve.
I've little doubt that Nick would take this shot if he didn't think he was going to make it. He is a champion several times over and I for one would not want to second guess him or criticize him for shooting at his hole. Anyone can miss, but that does not necessarily mean he took the wrong shot.

Would there have been any conversation about this shot had Nick made the twelve?

Tom

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

Anyone can miss, but that does not necessarily mean he took the wrong shot. I never said he took the wrong shot.

Would there have been any conversation about this shot had Nick made the twelve?

Tom

As to whether or not there would have been any conversation about this shot if Nick had made the 12; we cannot talk about what did not happen, only about what did happen. He needed 3 balls from the original layout's position. Several here, including Mr. One Pocket Ghost thought the correct shot was to make the 7 ball. He said that without knowing what Nick shot.

Dennis

 

[Tom Wirth]

If I had not just shot six balls but still had a five to one lead, I would be more apt to pocket the seven and not take a chance on picking up one ball in a situation where I could very well loose the game should I miss. For me this is one of those spots where the right shot is measured by the little man deep inside.
Tom

He needed 3 balls from the original layout's position. Several here, including Mr. One Pocket Ghost thought the correct shot was to make the 7 ball. He also said he thought the shot on the twelve was permissible should the shooter had exceptional ability.He said that without knowing what Nick shot.

Dennis

You do not say he shot the wrong shot. So what are we talking about here? Doesn't it come down to the feel and confidence within the player?
He missed the shot. He took a chance, but for him it is a safe assumption to think he considered it was a risk worth taking at that particular moment. If the game was only about making proper strategic decissions without the element of execution of that strategy we might all be champions.
This is the nature of the game.

Tom

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

Considering that I just had the luxury of pocketing six balls I now have a more comfortable feel at the table.

Tom

You do not say he shot the wrong shot. So what are we talking about here? Doesn't it come down to the feel and confidence within the player? You are correct but if you saw Varner's confidence after he rolled too far on the 12 ball you would wonder why he forced himself to shoot it.

Tom

Tom,

What we are talking about here is this; You cannot assume anyone has a comfortable feel at the table by virtue of their having just run 6 balls. That's what we are talking about.

You may have just made 6 balls and got out-of-line on every one of them. That doesn't give you a comfortable feel for the table.

He needed 3 balls from the original layout's position. Several here, including Mr. One Pocket Ghost thought the correct shot was to make the 7 ball. He also said he thought the shot on the twelve was permissible should the shooter had exceptional ability.He said that without knowing what Nick shot.

Dennis

Actually Tom, the One Pocket Ghost said this;

Considering the score, and the fact that the ball is too deep in the pocket for a sure-thing-controllable-dig-out, any normal human One Pocket player is supposed to make the guy's ball for him, rail first, leaving him froze on the head rail - end of discussion......

Now if a guy in this scenario shot as straight as Shane or John Schmidt, and wanted to shoot the 10 ball instead (presuming he could see enough of the 10 ball to make it) - that would be permissible - barely - but it would still be the second best choice...

The point being that a shot is right or wrong before it's executed, not after. You can shoot the right shot poorly or shoot the wrong shot very well, ala Efren, but the shot is right or wrong before it's executed.

Some on this site insist that if a shot worked out for a player then it was the right shot for him. Those same people probably wouldn't bet on these players shooting those right shots though.

Dennis

 

[Tom Wirth]

Tom,

What we are talking about here is this; You cannot assume anyone has a comfortable feel at the table by virtue of their having just run 6 balls. That's what we are talking about.

You may have just made 6 balls and got out-of-line on every one of them. That doesn't give you a comfortable feel for the table.



Actually Tom, the One Pocket Ghost said this;




The point being that a shot is right or wrong before it's executed, not after. You can shoot the right shot poorly or shoot the wrong shot very well, ala Efren, but the shot is right or wrong before it's executed.

Some on this site insist that if a shot worked out for a player then it was the right shot for him. Those same people probably wouldn't bet on these players shooting those right shots though.

Dennis

Dennis,
I see what you are saying. So let us assume as you suggest that Nick may have been out of line on all six of the shots he made. He still made all six of the shots, which tells us something of his confidence in pocketing the balls. He is now out of line one more time. Can we expect him to stop shooting at his hole? I wouldn't think so. I'm not saying he should or should not have taken the shot on the twelve ball.

I saw that shot as a real toss-up, especially given that postion for a follow-up shot complicated the current shot considerably. Either way, comfortable or not, he was confident in his shot making skills. The seven ball would obviously have been a far safer play but continuing the run had merit too.

All I am saying is I have no doubt Nick weighed the pros and cons of this shot before he made his final decision to shoot. This is what each of us must do from shot to shot thoughout the course of every game we play. We must play within our abilities and knowing our limitations is the first step to success. He is a professional through and through and his abilities and limitations are attributes of which he is well aware.

Tom

 

[tylerdurden]

TD,

To "cinch" a 9 ball when playing 9-Ball is a completely different stroke than when playing one-pocket. When you make the 9 ball you win the game and only have to avoid scratching. This is not Varner's game ball, if he makes it it gives him 7 balls and he owes one, giving him 6 balls. You either make the 12 here and play shapes or make the 7 in Efren's pocket. One or the other.

Dennis

I know that, and I am saying I think he should have hit it with that cinch stroke if he was shooting. Rolling a ball like that in aint no fun for me, especially when thinking about the point/side. As I mentioned, I think there is still a slight chance to get on those balls. The most important thing is making it though. If I would miss this ball personally I'd be really mad at myself, I don't like to lose like that.

I'd either make the 7, or cinch that ball he shot at. I already outlined my potential shots earlier.

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

I know that, and I am saying I think he should have hit it with that cinch stroke if he was shooting. Rolling a ball like that in aint no fun for me, especially when thinking about the point/side. As I mentioned, I think there is still a slight chance to get on those balls. The most important thing is making it though. If I would miss this ball personally I'd be really mad at myself, I don't like to lose like that.

I'd either make the 7, or cinch that ball he shot at. I already outlined my potential shots earlier.

TD,

I guess I'm not understanding your "cinch stroke". To me it means make the ball the best & easiest way possible without regard to where the cueball goes, which, in this case means you probably don't get a second shot after making the 12.

I don't see much point to that. Efren will still have a ball in his jaws and you may not be able to remove it or shoot it in. I would only shoot the 12 if I played shapes on another ball.

Absolutely right that shooting the 12 with the proper speed to play shapes ain't no pic-in-ic. That's what separates the men from the boys.

P.S. This may be one of the earliest examples of "Efren Fear". Maybe Varner didn't want to pass up the 12 ball even though he didn't like his position on it. Maybe he didn't like his chances of being up 5-2 to Efren with the balls where they were. It's not the 1st time that a top player made a very bad decision/bad shot when he was playing Effie. Maybe he thought "Efren's not going to run 7 if I miss anyway". You never know, players are human too.

Dennis

 

[wincardona]

Dennis,
I see what you are saying. So let us assume as you suggest that Nick may have been out of line on all six of the shots he made. He still made all six of the shots, which tells us something of his confidence in pocketing the balls. He is now out of line one more time. Can we expect him to stop shooting at his hole? I wouldn't think so. I'm not saying he should or should not have taken the shot on the twelve ball.

I saw that shot as a real toss-up, especially given that postion for a follow-up shot complicated the current shot considerably. Either way, comfortable or not, he was confident in his shot making skills. The seven ball would obviously have been a far safer play but continuing the run had merit too.

All I am saying is I have no doubt Nick weighed the pros and cons of this shot before he made his final decision to shoot. This is what each of us must do from shot to shot thoughout the course of every game we play. We must play within our abilities and knowing our limitations is the first step to success. He is a professional through and through and his abilities and limitations are attributes of which he is well aware.

Tom

I think you're on to something here.


I learned a long time ago to never second guess champions, particularly the ones that are solid players. And then go to the extent to say that it was the wrong shot in a discretional situation is really unfair to the player. Plain and simple, if you never have played at the highest level then how can you judge a champion players choice of shot choice in such a critical way. That is unless you know. My bad.

Dr. Bill

 

[Cowboy Dennis]

Dennis,
I see what you are saying. So let us assume as you suggest that Nick may have been out of line on all six of the shots he made. He still made all six of the shots, which tells us something of his confidence in pocketing the balls. He is now out of line one more time. Can we expect him to stop shooting at his hole? I wouldn't think so. I'm not saying he should or should not have taken the shot on the twelve ball.

I saw that shot as a real toss-up, especially given that postion for a follow-up shot complicated the current shot considerably. Either way, comfortable or not, he was confident in his shot making skills. The seven ball would obviously have been a far safer play but continuing the run had merit too.

All I am saying is I have no doubt Nick weighed the pros and cons of this shot before he made his final decision to shoot. This is what each of us must do from shot to shot thoughout the course of every game we play. We must play within our abilities and knowing our limitations is the first step to success. He is a professional through and through and his abilities and limitations are attributes of which he is well aware.

Tom

Very accurate analysis Tom. I figure Varner makes that 12 ball probably 80% of the time, this time was just in the other 20%.

Dennis

 

[androd]

Very accurate analysis Tom. I figure Varner makes that 12 ball probably 80% of the time, this time was just in the other 20%.

Dennis

Yep.
He probably plays as safe, deliberate and slow as most anyone.
He probably felt pretty good about his chances.
Rod.